The first playoff hurdle of IPL 2025 arrives on Thursday, 29 May, when table-toppers Punjab Kings face the surging Royal Challengers Bengaluru at New PCA Stadium in Chandigarh. Both sides logged 19 points from the league phase, yet they arrive by very different paths: Punjab’s consistency under Shreyas Iyer earned them the No. 1 slot, while RCB’s spectacular late sprint, capped by a record chase in Lucknow, vaulted them into second. A place in the final is at stake, and with betting odds almost level, we have a genuine coin flip on our hands in this Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru match.
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Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Match Preview
Punjab’s renaissance season has been built on bold batting, shrewd leadership, and wickets in the powerplay. Nine victories, four defeats, and one no-result produced a net run rate of +0.372, the best in the competition. Shreyas Iyer sits 10th on the Orange Cap chart with 514 runs, while left-arm quick Arshdeep Singh’s 18 dismissals place him inside the Purple Cap top five. Their latest outing, a seven-wicket stroll against Mumbai Indians that needed only 18.3 overs, showcased the calm finishing skills of Josh Inglis and the fearless stroke-play of youngster Priyansh Arya.
RCB, level on points at 19 but with a slightly lower net run rate of +0.301, arrive riding a tidal wave of momentum. They became the first franchise to win all seven away matches in a single IPL season and stormed into Qualifier 1 by mowing down 228 in Lucknow, the league’s third-highest chase, courtesy of Jitesh Sharma’s 33-ball 85*. Virat Kohli’s 602 runs ensure the evergreen opener remains the heartbeat of Bengaluru’s batting, while the anticipated return of Josh Hazlewood (18 wickets before his brief trip home) strengthens a pace unit already featuring swing veteran Bhuvneshwar Kumar.
Historically, this matchup is finely balanced: after 35 previous meetings Punjab edge the ledger 18-17, and each team claimed a win in their two league clashes this year. Predictive models give the Kings a 50.66% chance and RCB 49.34%, effectively a dead heat.
Betting Insights
- Money-line: At Dafabet, PBKS are at 1.89 to win this match, while RCB is at 1.92 – the narrowest possible margin.
- Handicap markets: Set totals hover around 181.5 first-innings runs, reflecting the venue’s scoring profile.
- Player props:
- Kohli over 32.5 runs is priced near 1.80 after nine 30-plus knocks in 12 innings.
- Iyer over 29.5 runs trades at 1.85; he has passed 30 in eight of his last 11 innings.
- Arshdeep to take 2+ wickets offers 2.20, boosted by the absence of Marco Jansen, which places greater new-ball responsibility on him.
- Hazlewood 2+ wickets sits at 2.10 on his comeback, appealing given the extra bounce on offer.
- Value angles: RCB to hit the most sixes at 1.95 – they have cleared the ropes 118 times, second-most in the league, thanks to Kohli, Livingstone and the in-form Jitesh.
- Live play: If Punjab bat second, late dew has pushed their in-play chase odds from 2.05 to as short as 1.60 in similar conditions during the season; watch the price drift if RCB post under 185.
Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Lineups
Punjab Kings probable XI:
- Prabhsimran Singh
- Pryiansh Arya
- Shreyas Iyer (capt)
- Josh Inglis (wk)
- Marcus Stoinis
- Aaron Hardie
- Azmatullah Omarzai
- Harpreet Brar
- Arshdeep Singh
- Kyle Jamieson
- Yuzvendra Chahal
Royal Challengers Bengaluru probable XI:
- Virat Kohli (capt)
- Phil Salt (wk)
- Mayank Agarwal
- Rajat Patidar
- Liam Livingstone
- Jitesh Sharma
- Krunal Pandya
- Romario Shepherd
- Josh Hazlewood
- Bhuvneshwar Kumar
- Yash Dayal
Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Prediction
On form alone Punjab deserve favouritism: they have led from the front, possess the stronger net run rate, and their middle-order adaptability has repeatedly erased shaky starts. The key variable is Marco Jansen’s withdrawal; without his high-release left-arm bounce, the bowling attack looks thinner at the death. Arshdeep’s new-ball success must therefore be matched by Jamieson’s yorkers late on.
RCB, in contrast, ride a wave of confidence after a perfect record on the road and the emotional lift of that 228 chase. Their batting depth is formidable: Kohli anchors, Jitesh provides late acceleration, and Livingstone offers a right-left power option. Hazlewood’s return could be decisive – the Australian excels on true surfaces and owns a power-play economy below 6.5 this season.
- Match verdict: Royal Challengers Bengaluru to win. Punjab’s missing pace spearhead plus RCB’s relentless away form tip the balance.
- Top run scorer: Virat Kohli; expect him to cash in against a leg-spinner-heavy attack.
- Top wicket taker: Josh Hazlewood; swing with the new ball and variations at the death suit this surface.
- Side bet: Over 17.5 match sixes – both teams average more than nine maximums per game.
Bettors should monitor the toss: if dew is heavy, chasing becomes a significant edge. Still, even on a dry night RCB’s balanced attack looks better equipped to defend, and their batting order finishes stronger. Back Bengaluru to book a direct ticket to the final, with Kohli steering the chase or setting up a competitive first-innings target.
