The Virginia Cavaliers and NC State Wolfpack will play in their ACC opener on Saturday afternoon. Both teams got wins in their season openers last week and the betting markets suggest that we are in for a close game at Carger-Finley Stadium. Before these ACC rivals put their 1-0 records on the line against each other, you can continue reading to get my Virginia vs NC State prediction for this weekend’s matchup.
Our Virginia vs NC State Pick
- Pick: Virginia Moneyline
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Virginia Cavaliers vs NC State Wolfpack
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET
- Venue: Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, NC
- Broadcast: ESPN2
Virginia vs NC State Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| NC State –2.5 | NC State –130 / Virginia +110 | 53.5 |
Key Storylines
- Virginia’s offense lit up Coastal Carolina for 467 total yards in Chandler Morris’ first start with the Cavaliers. This game should be a bigger test for both Morris and the Cavaliers against a fellow ACC opponent.
- NC State’s run defense held East Carolina to just 1.0 yards per carry and limited explosive plays from the Pirates. Their defense will be tested against a more explosive offense this week.
- This is the conference opener for both of these teams and a win would go a long way in keeping the conference title hopes of both teams alive longer. Teams like Clemson and Miami will likely crush those hopes later in the year but this game will help keep some conference title hopes alive for at least another couple of weeks.
Quarterback Play
Virginia’s Chandler Morris quarterbacked the Cavaliers’ opener with 264 yards and two touchdowns. He also had 50 rushing yards on five carries. Morris exited Week 1 with a shoulder issue but is expected to play without any problems this week. NC State’s CJ Bailey completed 24 of 34 passes for 318 yards, a touchdown, and an interception.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Virginia covered the spread in their season opener against Coastal Carolina.
- NC State is 0-1 against the spread after failing to cover the number against East Carolina last week.
- NC State went under the total in their season opener. Virginia’s first game of the year resulted in a push on the over/under market.
- NC State leads the all-time series against Virginia 36-21-1.
- NC State has won three straight games against Virginia.
Virginia vs NC State Model Projection
Score Projection: Virginia 24 – NC State 20
Win Probability: NC State 50%, Virginia 50%
Final Thoughts
This game will tell us a lot about both of these teams after they took care of business against teams from smaller conferences last week. I think this game is close to a toss-up, and that means I’m inclined to take the underdog on the moneyline here. As long as Chandler Morris is healthy enough to play without any problems, I’ll go with Virginia to get the win on the road to open their ACC slate.
