The UTEP Miners and Texas Longhorns will face off in a Texas two-step in Week 3 of the college football season. The Longhorns are looking for their second win in a row after their Week 1 loss to Ohio State. They are massive favorites to get that win against a UTEP team that has not looked impressive so far this year. Before kickoff from Austin, continue reading to get my UTEP vs Texas prediction for Saturday’s game.
Our UTEP vs Texas Pick
- Pick: Texas -40.5
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: UTEP Miners vs Texas Longhorns
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 13, 2025, 4:15 PM EDT
- Venue: Darrell K. Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
- Broadcast: SEC Network
Key Storylines
- Texas’ Dominance Over UTEP: Texas has won all four previous matchups against UTEP, with an average margin of victory of 46.5 points. The last meeting in 2020 resulted in a 59-3 win for Texas.
- UTEP’s Struggles: UTEP enters the game with a 1-1 record, having defeated UT Martin and lost to Utah State. They face a significant challenge against the seventh ranked Longhorns as they look to get their first win of the season against an FBS opponent.
- Texas’ Offensive Weapons: Quarterback Arch Manning has been widely criticized early in the season. He has five touchdown passes and two interceptions and the Longhorns were held to just seven points with him at quarterback against Ohio State. We won’t learn much about Manning here but he needs to start trending in the right direction before SEC play begins.
Quarterback Play
Texas: Arch Manning has fallen short of expectations through two games. He has completed 60% of his passes and did not look good enough against Ohio State for Texas to be a serious contender this season. There is plenty of time for Manning to turn it around, but it has to start with games like this one against beatable competition.
UTEP: Miners quarterback Malachi Nelson has nearly identical numbers to Arch Manning so far this season. He has the same completion percentage, the same number of touchdowns, and one interception less than Manning thus far. He is likely to struggle against the Longhorns, but that is an interesting statistical comparison due to the small sample size.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Texas is 0-2 against the spread so far this season.
- UTEP is 1-1 against the spread in the early portion of the 2025 campaign.
- The Longhorns have gone under the total in two straight games.
- UTEP is 1-1 in the over/under market so far this year.
UTEP vs Texas Model Projection
- Score Projection: Texas 52 – UTEP 10
- Win Probability: Texas 99%, UTEP 1%
Final Thoughts
Texas has had a hard time offensively early in the season and has failed to cover the spread in two straight games. I think that trend will be reversed in this matchup against the worst team they have played so far this season. Arch Manning should get his act together in this game and Texas will win by over 40 points at home.
