The UL Monroe Warhawks will head to the Sun Bowl in El Paso to face the UTEP Miners on Saturday night. Both teams are still looking for their first wins of the season against FBS opponents after some tough non-conference games against power conference teams in their last outings. Here, we determine which team will get their first FBS win of the 2025 season as we make our UL Monroe vs UTEP prediction for Saturday night.
Our UL Monroe vs UTEP Pick
- Pick: Under 47.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: UL Monroe Warhawks vs UTEP Miners
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 20, 2025, 9:00 PM EDT
- Venue: Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Storylines
- UTEP’s Offensive Balance: Quarterback Malachi Nelson has thrown for 665 yards and five touchdowns this season. However, the Miners’ rushing game ranks 115th nationally, averaging just 115.7 yards per game. Improving this aspect of their game will be important for a well-rounded offense.
- UL Monroe’s Defensive Resilience: After a 73-0 loss to Alabama, the Warhawks will look to bounce back in this game. This contest will be a great test of the mental toughness of UL Monroe as they are on the road after being thoroughly embarrassed in their last outing.
- Home Advantage for UTEP: Playing at the Sun Bowl, UTEP will look to capitalize on familiar surroundings to secure a much-needed win. UTEP is 1-0 at home so far this season, though that win came against UT Martin out of the FCS ranks.
Quarterback Play
Malachi Nelson has shown promise for UTEP, with a completion rate exceeding 62%, five touchdown passes, and three interceptions. His continued development is key to the Miners’ offensive success. UL Monroe quarterback Aidan Armenta led an offense that was shut out last time out. He has one touchdown pass and two interceptions on the year and will try to improve against a less difficult opponent this week.
Betting Trends & H2H
- UTEP’s ATS Record: UTEP is 2-1 against the spread to start this season.
- UL Monroe’s ATS Record: UL Monroe is 0-2 against the spread to begin the year. They failed to cover the spread against Alabama and in their win over FCS St. Francis (PA).
- Over/Under Trends: The total has gone under in two of UTEP’s first three games. UL Monroe is 1-1 in the over/under market to begin the 2025 season.
UL Monroe vs UTEP Model Projection
Score Projection: UTEP 27 – UL Monroe 20
Win Probability: UTEP 65%, UL Monroe 35%
Final Thoughts
I don’t like the idea of betting on either side in this game. I think that UTEP will win the game, but my best bet here is for the under to cash at 47.5 points. We should see both defenses play better than they did against power conference opponents last time out. But the offenses should still struggle somewhat and we could be in for a low-scoring game.
