The Tennessee Volunteers will host the UAB Blazers at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville on Saturday. Tennessee is coming off an overtime loss to Georgia and the Vols will look to bounce back from their first loss of the season. They take on a UAB team that is 2-1 but has questions to answer on defense. Here, I break down this non-conference game in college football and give you my UAB vs Tennessee prediction.
Our UAB vs Tennessee Pick
- Pick: Tennessee -38.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: UAB Blazers vs Tennessee Volunteers
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 20, 2025, 12:45 PM ET
- Venue: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
- Broadcast: SEC Network
Key Storylines
- Tennessee’s Offense: The Vols still managed a high-scoring output against one of the nation’s best defenses despite their loss to Georgia. They rank highly in total yards per game. Tennessee will want to build off that while tightening up its defense.
- UAB’s defensive struggles: UAB ranks poorly defensively, particularly against the pass. It’s expected they’ll have trouble slowing down a high-powered Tennessee offense this week after we’ve seen them get torched by teams like Navy and Alabama State.
- Mental and physical letdown concerns: After a close, emotionally draining loss to Georgia, Tennessee must guard against a slip in focus against a team they could overlook.
Quarterback Play
Tennessee’s starting quarterback Joey Aguilar has shown good command of the offense this year. He was officially named the starter before the season and has produced strong passing numbers, averaging over 300 passing yards per game. UAB quarterback Jalen Kitna has also posted solid numbers but he will likely be tested by Tennessee’s pass rush and secondary. Aguilar should have the edge both in execution and protection.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Tennessee is 3-0 against the spread coming into this game.
- UAB is 1-2 against the spread early in the year.
- All three of Tennessee’s games have gone over their totals.
- UAB is also 3-0 to the over to begin their season.
- Tennessee is 5-0 all-time against UAB. The last meeting between these programs came in 2019.
UAB vs Tennessee Model Projection
Score Projection: Tennessee 55 – UAB 14
Win Probability: Tennessee 90%, UAB 10%
Final Thoughts
Tennessee is heavily favored for good reason. They are better on both sides of the ball and nearly beat a national title contender in Georgia last week. UAB may keep things respectable for a quarter or two, especially if their offense finds rhythm, but the Vols look poised to dominate. My best bet is to lay the big number with Tennessee in this game, as their offense should continue rolling while their defense looks a lot better than it did in their last outing.
