Toledo and Bowling Green will meet in Mid-American Conference play on Saturday. Both teams are within a game of the .500 mark heading into this weekend, but Toledo is a heavy favorite on the road going into this game. Before kickoff for this bit of MACtion, continue reading to get my Toledo vs Bowling Green prediction.
Our Toledo vs Bowling Green Pick
- Pick: Bowling Green +10.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Toledo Rockets vs Bowling Green Falcons
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 11, 2025, 12:00 PM ET
- Venue: Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, OH
- Broadcast: ESPNU
Toledo vs Bowling Green Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Toledo −10.5 | Toledo −425 / BGSU +320 | 47.5 |
Key Storylines
A big factor in this game will be Toledo’s defense, which currently ranks at the top of the MAC in points allowed at 12.4 points per game. Their ability to limit explosive plays has been key in their 3-2 start. But Toledo has struggled to put points on the board consistently and they will try to address that in this game on the road.
Bowling Green head coach Eddie George is off to a 2-3 start in his first season in charge of the Falcons. BGSU has dropped three of its last four games. But all three of those losses have come on the road and the Falcons will try to stay unbeaten at home with a victory as an underdog against Toledo on Saturday afternoon.
Quarterback Play
Toledo signal-caller Tucker Gleason has thrown for 925 yards with seven touchdowns and three interceptions this season. His connection with Junior Vandeross III has been special so far this season. Vandeross leads the MAC in touchdown receptions with six and he is averaging just over six catches per game.
Bowling Green QB Drew Pyne has passed for 830 yards, four touchdowns, and five interceptions. His turnover issues are a liability for the Falcons. Pyne has to take better care of the football if his team is going to steal a win in this matchup.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Toledo enters this week with a 4-1 record against the spread for the season.
- Bowling Green also has a winning record against the spread at 3-2.
- Bowling Green has seen three of its first five games go over their totals.
- Toledo has had three of its first five games stay under the total.
- Toledo is 43-42-4 all-time against Bowling Green. The all-time series between these teams is evenly matched.
Toledo vs Bowling Green Model Projection
Score Projection: Toledo 27 – Bowling Green 17
Win Probability: Toledo 72%, Bowling Green 28%
Final Thoughts
If Bowling Green can avoid turning the ball over in this game, they are more than capable of hanging with Toledo in this contest. The Rockets are the better team overall, but they have yet to win on the road this season. I think that we are in for a close game and I think that taking the points with Bowling Green is the best option when it comes to betting on this MAC matchup.
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