Texas State and Arkansas State will meet in a Sun Belt Conference game on Saturday afternoon. The Bobcats are playing some very good football early in the season, entering this game with a 3-1 record. Here, they are favored by around two touchdowns, but will need to avoid falling into a trap on the road against the Red Wolves. Continue reading to get my Texas State vs Arkansas State prediction for Saturday’s matchup in the Sun Belt.
Our Texas State vs Arkansas State Pick
- Pick: Arkansas State +13.5
- Confidence: 4/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Texas State vs Arkansas State
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 4, 2025, 4:00 PM EDT
- Venue: Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, AR
- Broadcast: ESPNU
Key Storylines
- Texas State’s Offensive Dominance: The Bobcats boast one of the nation’s top rushing offenses, averaging 221.5 yards per game. This strength is poised to exploit Arkansas State’s defense, which allows 201.2 rushing yards per game. Arkansas State will be able to key in on the run in this contest, with the question being whether or not that will be enough to get stops.
- Arkansas State’s Struggles: With a 1-4 record, the Red Wolves have faced challenges on both sides of the ball. Their defense ranks 126th nationally in rushing yards allowed, and their offense has been inconsistent. Their only win of the season came against SEMO of the FCS and the Red Wolves will look for their first FBS win of the 2025 season here.
- Quarterback Play: Texas State’s quarterback has been efficient, throwing six touchdowns to just one interception. Arkansas State quarterback Jaylen Raynor has faced difficulties, with six touchdown passes and four interceptions. He is averaging 240.6 passing yards per game, but some of that is a product of them trailing in so many of their games.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Texas State: Texas State is 2-2 against the spread so far this season.
- Arkansas State: Arkansas State has gone 2-3 against the spread through five games.
- Over/Under: Texas State has gone 2-2 on over/unders this year. The Red Wolves are 2-3 on totals this season.
Texas State vs Arkansas State Model Projection
- Score Projection: Texas State 38 – Arkansas State 27
- Win Probability: Texas State 79.9%, Arkansas State 20.1%
Final Thoughts
Texas State is playing better football going into this matchup in the Sun Belt. I would expect the Bobcats to win in their Sun Belt opener. But I am taking Arkansas State to cover the spread as an underdog here. The teams in the Sun Belt will likely be trying to team Texas State a lesson now that they are trying to leave the conference. And while I don’t think Arkansas State will win outright, they will keep this game pretty respectable.
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