South Florida vs Miami Pick & Prediction – 9/13/2025
The South Florida Bulls and Miami Hurricanes will face off in one of the more interesting games of the Week 3 schedule in college football. Both teams enter 2-0 and are in the top 25 in the country. USF is looking for a third straight win over a ranked team and Miami is hoping for its second such victory. Before kickoff from South Florida, continue reading to get my analysis for this game, including my South Florida vs Miami prediction.
Our South Florida vs Miami Pick
- Pick: USF +18.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: South Florida Bulls vs Miami Hurricanes
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 13, 2025, 4:30 PM ET
- Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
- Broadcast: The CW
Key Storylines
- USF’s rise under its current staff has been sudden and dramatic. They have wins over Boise State and Florida to start their season and will try to earn a third straight upset win here.
- Miami impressed in their season opener against Notre Dame before destroying FCS Bethune Cookman last week. This game is a nice early test of the composure of the Hurricanes at home.
Quarterback Play
South Florida’s offensive identity centers on Byrum Brown at quarterback. Brown has been productive through two games and has returned fully from last season’s injury to lead a resilient USF offense. Brown leads the Bulls in both passing and rushing yards and he will try to make big plays again in this game both with his arm and legs.
Miami’s passing game is led by Georgia transfer Carson Beck. Beck has been solid so far for the Canes. He has 472 passing yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions. His ability to avoid turnovers will be key if Miami is going to avoid being put on upset alert in this battle of top 25 squads.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Miami is 1-1 against the spread after failing to cover against Bethune Cookman.
- USF is 2-0 against the spread. They have won outright as underdogs twice in a row.
- Miami is 6-1 all-time against USF coming into this in-state matchup.
- Miami has won four straight games against the Bulls.
- The most recent meeting between these teams came in 2024. Miami won that game 50-15 behind quarterback Cam Ward, who went onto become the top pick in the most recent NFL Draft.
South Florida vs Miami Model Projection
Score Projection: Miami 31 – South Florida 21
Win Probability: Miami 86%, South Florida 14%
Final Thoughts
Miami should be able to win this game on their home field to improve to 3-0 on the season. But I’m not convinced that they will be able to cover this big a point spread against a UCF team that is clearly good enough to hang with ranked competition. The Bulls may not win this game outright, but I think they make it reasonably close. I’ll take USF to cover the spread as an underdog in what should be a good game between Floridian opponents.
