The first week of the 2025 college football season includes a huge game between Notre Dame and Miami. Both teams enter the season ranked in the top 10 and looking for a massive victory to open the year. Before this game begins from Hard Rock Stadium in South Florida, keep reading to get my thoughts on the game and my Notre Dame vs Miami prediction.
Our Notre Dame vs Miami Pick
- Pick: Notre Dame -2.5
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Notre Dame vs Miami
- Date & Time: Sunday, August 31, 2025, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
- Broadcast: ABC
Notre Dame vs Miami Odds
| Odds | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame | -2.5 | -130 | O 49.5 |
| Miami | +2.5 | +115 | U 49.5 |
Key Storylines
Notre Dame enters with a revamped defense under new coordinator Chris Ash. They are aiming to improve their turnover generation after key departures from last year’s team. The Fighting Irish have excelled in season openers historically. Notre Dame is looking to get off to a strong start after finishing last season as runner-up to Ohio State in the College Football Playoff.
Miami is poised to look very different on offense than they did a season ago. Carson Beck brings a Georgia pedigree to the quarterback position. But Miami had the Heisman Trophy winner and number-one overall NFL Draft pick Cam Ward as their signal caller last season. A downgrade at quarterback could prevent the Hurricanes from making a playoff run in 2025.
Quarterback Play
Notre Dame’s quarterback battle remains unsettled. C.J. Carr and Kenny Minchey are competing for the starting job. Whoever gets the nod must establish rhythm early against a Miami secondary capable of forcing turnovers. Beck’s transfer to Miami is one of the most interesting portal moves of this offseason. His efficiency and decision-making will determine if Miami’s aerial attack can come close to what they produced with Ward last year.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Miami went 6-6-1 against the spread last season.
- Notre Dame was 12-3-1 against the spread last year. That was the fourth-best record against the spread in college football.
- Notre Dame leads the all-time series 18-8-1 over Miami. Their last meeting in 2017 was a 41-8 Miami win.
Notre Dame vs Miami Model Projection
Score Projection: Notre Dame 27 – Miami 24
Win Probability: Notre Dame 58%, Miami 42%
Final Thoughts
I don’t think that Carson Beck is going to be bad this year for Miami. But I also don’t think that he will be anywhere near as good as Cam Ward was for the Hurricanes a season ago. We should see Notre Dame’s stout defense make life difficult on Beck in his first game with the Canes. My recommendation is to lay the points with Notre Dame on the road in what could be a huge win for their playoff resume later in the year.
