The North Texas Mean Green and Western Michigan Broncos took very different approaches to their first weeks of the season. North Texas beat up on an FCS team and Western Michigan lost to a power conference opponent. Those teams will meet on Saturday in a non-conference contest in college football. Before that game begins, you can find my North Texas vs Western Michigan prediction below.
Our North Texas vs Western Michigan Pick
- Pick: Over 56.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: North Texas Mean Green vs Western Michigan Broncos
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 6, 2025, 3:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Waldo Stadium, Kalamazoo, MI
- Broadcast: ESPN+
North Texas vs Western Michigan Odds
| Odds | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Texas | –9.5 | –360 | 56.5 |
| Western Michigan | +9.5 | +280 |
Key Storylines
- North Texas enters riding the momentum of a commanding 51-0 win over Lamar. They looked great on both sides of the ball but it would be hard not to look great against an FCS opponent at home and this game will be a more representative test for the Mean Green roster.
- Western Michigan’s Week 1 offense looked brittle in a 23-6 loss to Michigan State. But their defense showed signs of life by limiting their Big Ten opponent. This game should also give us a better idea of who the Broncos are on both sides of the ball.
- This is the first-ever meeting between these teams. That doesn’t give us much of a frame of reference when evaluating the matchup for the most part.
Quarterback Play
- North Texas: Drew Mestemaker was sharp in Week 1. He completed 75% of his passes for 329 yards and three touchdowns. He also added a rushing touchdown. He’s clearly the engine of UNT’s air-raid offense and will try to prove himself against a tougher opponent on the road here.
- Western Michigan: A two-quarterback mix of Brady Jones and Broc Lowry combined for less than 200 yards, no touchdowns, and a pick. But it is hard to hold that performance against those quarterbacks given the mismatch between the two programs involved.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Both of these teams covered the spread in their first games of the 2025 season.
- The Mean Green and Broncos both went under the total in their season openers last week.
North Texas vs Western Michigan Model Projection
- Score Projection: North Texas 34 – Western Michigan 24
- Win Probability: North Texas 70%, Western Michigan 30%
Final Thoughts
I feel more strongly about the total in this game than I do about the point spread or moneyline. I think that the over is the best bet for this game. North Texas will see some regression on offense but will still put up points and Western Michigan will look a lot more capable on offense than they did against Michigan State. This game should get up around 60 points in what will be an entertaining game in Kalamazoo.
