The New Mexico State Aggies will face the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs in a Conference USA matchup on Saturday. New Mexico State is 2-0 to start the season and will look to stay unbeaten after winning their first conference game of the year here. Before the action begins in Louisiana, continue reading to get my thoughts on this game, including my New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech prediction.
Our New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech Pick
- Pick: New Mexico State +10.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New Mexico State Aggies vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 13, 2025, 7:30 PM EDT
- Venue: Joe Aillet Stadium, Ruston, LA
- Broadcast: ESPN+
New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech Odds
| Bet Type | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Tech -10.5 |
| Moneyline | New Mexico State +290 | Louisiana Tech -380 |
| Total | Over/Under 42.5 |
Key Storylines
Quarterback Play
New Mexico State’s Logan Fife has been efficient. He has thrown for 479 yards with three touchdowns and one interception over two games. His ability to manage the game and make key throws will be even more important in the first road game of the year for the Aggies. Trey Kukuk of Louisiana Tech has thrown for 180 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions. The Bulldogs have played one FCS opponent and LSU. That means we will finally get to see Kukuk in a game a little more evenly matched.
Defensive Strengths
New Mexico State boasts one of the nation’s top defenses over the small sample size of the first couple of weeks. They have allowed just 8.5 points per game, ranking 13th nationally. Their ability to stifle opposing offenses will be a significant advantage if it translates to their first game on the road. Louisiana Tech’s defense has allowed 318 yards per game. But they will face a more potent offense in this matchup than they saw in their only other home game against Southeastern Louisiana.
Offensive Challenges
Louisiana Tech’s offense has struggled. The Bulldogs have averaged only 15.5 points per game, ranking 119th in the nation. Their passing game averages just 111 yards per game, which could be problematic against New Mexico State’s defense. New Mexico State’s offense has been more balanced. They have averaged 20 points per game and will look to exploit Louisiana Tech’s defensive weaknesses.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Louisiana Tech is 6-15 straight up in its last 21 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Louisiana Tech’s last 6 games.
- New Mexico State is 4-2 against the spread in its last 6 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Mexico State’s last 10 games.
- Louisiana Tech is 4-1 straight up in its last 5 home games against New Mexico State.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Louisiana Tech’s last 5 home games against New Mexico State.
New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech Model Projection
Score Projection: New Mexico State 24 – Louisiana Tech 31
Win Probability: New Mexico State 35%, Louisiana Tech 65%
Final Thoughts
The Aggies have been better so far this season but I recommend bettors don’t think too much about what we have seen so far from these teams. The strength of schedule swings for both teams have made it tough to evaluate their current body of work. Instead, bettors should focus on this matchup itself. In doing so, I have come to the conclusion that Louisiana Tech will win by a touchdown, with New Mexico State covering the spread.
