The NC State Wolfpack and Duke Blue Devils will meet in an ACC showdown on Saturday. NC State enters with an undefeated 3-0 record, while Duke looks to rebound from a 1-2 start. But Duke is the favorite in this game despite having an inferior record early on. Find out if I think that is justified below, as I take a closer look at this game and give you my NC State vs Duke prediction.
Our NC State vs Duke Pick
- Pick: NC State +3
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: NC State Wolfpack vs Duke Blue Devils
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 20, 2025, 4:00 PM EDT
- Venue: Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, NC
- Broadcast: ESPN2
Key Storylines
NC State’s Unbeaten Start
The NC State Wolfpack have won their first three games. Two of those wins have come against ACC opponents. But only one of those wins counted as a conference win, as NC State’s win over Virginia was set up as a non-conference game. Still, this has been a dream start for NC State, who will look to stay unbeaten this week.
Duke Looks For First FBS Win
Duke is off to a rough start in 2025. They won their season opener against FCS Elon but have lost their two games since against FBS competition. The Blue Devils have lost to Illinois and Tulane and they will try to bounce back in their first ACC game of the 2025 season.
Quarterback Play
Duke’s offense is led by quarterback Darian Mensah, who has thrown for over 300 yards in each of his first three games. His ability to air it out has been a bright spot for the Blue Devils. NC State counters with dual-threat quarterback C.J. Bailey, who has accounted for eight total touchdowns this season. Bailey’s versatility and efficiency could be the X-factor in this matchup. But both quarterbacks will be expected to help light up the scoreboard here.
Betting Trends & H2H
- NC State is off to a 2-1 start against the spread this season.
- Duke has failed to cover the spread through three games in the 2025 season.
- NC State is 2-1 to the over this season.
- Duke is 3-0 to the over through three weeks.
- Duke has a 43-37-5 advantage in the all-time series against NC State.
NC State vs Duke Model Projection
Score Projection: NC State 31 – Duke 28
Win Probability: NC State 55%, Duke 45%
Final Thoughts
Duke is at home and they have an explosive passing offense. But the Blue Devils are lacking in most other facets of the game. NC State should pick on a struggling Duke defense in this matchup, with the dual-threat ability of CJ Bailey likely to cause Duke problems. I will take the points with NC State as an underdog here, as they aren’t likely to lose by much margin if they do falter.
