The USC Trojans will face the Missouri State Bears in Week 1 of the college football season on Saturday night. This game is the first for Missouri State as an FBS football team and they are expected to have trouble against Lincoln Riley’s high-powered offense. Before this historic game for the Missouri State football program, keep reading to get my Missouri State vs USC prediction.
Our Missouri State vs USC Pick
- Pick: USC -35.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Missouri State Bears vs USC Trojans
- Date & Time: Saturday, August 30, 2025, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA
- Broadcast: BTN
Missouri State vs USC Odds
| Spread | Total |
|---|---|
| USC –35.5 | 59.5 |
Key Storylines
Missouri State makes its FBS debut after an 8-4 FCS season last year. The Bears have tried to upgrade their roster in preparation for FBS football but there are obvious limitations there. We have seen teams like Kennesaw State make this transition without much success in year one and we could see the same for Missouri State this year.
USC will continue Lincoln Riley era with a largely untested offense. They will usher in Jayden Maiava as their starting quarterback this season. The gap in talent in this game is vast. But Lincoln Riley’s teams are always vulnerable to playing poorly enough on defense to allow their opponent to hang around in any game.
Quarterback Play
Missouri State – Jacob Clark: Clark had a huge season for Missouri State last year. He threw for 3,604 yards and 26 touchdowns last year. But there is a huge difference between carving up FCS defenses and doing it against Big Ten competition.
USC – Jayden Maiava: Maiava started his college career at UNLV and was with USC last year. He threw for 1,201 yards and 11 touchdowns in limited action. Now he has the keys to the USC offense on a full-time basis and will try to prove that he is the right player to fill that role.
Betting Trends & H2H
This is the first meeting between Missouri State and USC in the history of these programs. Missouri State is going to go on the road to get hammered by a lot of power conference FBS teams in the near future in order to get the checks needed to make their program more competitive at their new level of competition.
Missouri State vs USC Model Projection
Score Projection: USC 56 – Missouri State 17
Win Probability: USC 97%, Missouri State 3%
Final Thoughts
Missouri State was a good offensive team last season. But that was the case in the FCS. While the Bears might put up an early fight, I think the physical disadvantages for their program will be too much to overcome against USC. I’ll lay the huge point total with USC in this game with the expectation that the Trojans will put up a ton of points on offense.
