Mississippi State will hit the road to play a Group of Five opponent when they face Southern Miss on Saturday afternoon. The Bulldogs had a miserable 2024 campaign and will look to reach half of last season’s win total with a win in their season opener. Before these teams battle for in-state supremacy, continue reading to get my Mississippi State vs Southern Miss prediction.
Our Mississippi State vs Southern Miss Pick
- Pick: Southern Miss +13.5
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Mississippi State vs Southern Miss
- Date & Time: Saturday, August 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET
- Venue: M. M. Roberts Stadium, Hattiesburg, MS
- Broadcast: ESPN
Mississippi State vs Southern Miss Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| MSST −13.5 | MSST −550 / USM +380 | 61.5 |
Key Storylines
Mississippi State enters this opener with expectations firmly on their side. Their offense will look to improve under new head coach Jeff Lebby. They take on a Southern Miss team that won just one game last year and are also working under a new coach in Charles Huff. The Golden Eagles’ preseason projections place them in the middle of the pack in the Sun Belt West. But they have brought in a ton of transfers from Marshall and we don’t have much frame of reference for how they will perform as a unit in this season opener.
One of the biggest storylines going into this game is the fact that an SEC team is playing on the road against a Sun Belt team. These programs agreed to play two games at Mississippi State and one at Southern Miss as part of a three-game series over a few seasons. That adds a fun wrinkle to an in-state matchup.
Quarterback Play
Southern Miss will go with Braylon Braxton as their starting quarterback for this year. Braxton has spent time with Tulsa and Marshall over the last few years. He will look to build on last season where he threw 19 touchdowns to just two interceptions. Mississippi State’s quarterback situation isn’t set in stone just yet but they are hoping to have Shapen back as their quarterback for this contest. If he comes back in this game the Bulldogs offense could look better than it did last season.
Mississippi State vs Southern Miss Model Projection
Score Projection: Mississippi State 35 – Southern Miss 24
Win Probability: Mississippi State 77%, Southern Miss 23%
Final Thoughts
Mississippi State should win this game even if they don’t have home-field advantage to rely on like they would against most small-conference foes. But I think that Southern Miss will cover the spread against one of the worst power conference programs in college football right now. Braxton is a fantastic quarterback and should help his team compete here, even if the Bulldogs end up winning this game to open their 2025 campaign.
