The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders will visit the Nevada Wolf Pack in Reno on Saturday. Nevada has split its first two games of the year and will try to pick up its first win over an FBS program this season by beating an 0-2 Middle Tennessee squad. Here, I break down this non-conference matchup in college football and bring you my Middle Tennessee vs Nevada prediction.
Our Middle Tennessee vs Nevada Pick
- Pick: Nevada -8.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
- Get Your Bonus Bets: Use the bet365 promo code ATSBONUS to bet $5 and get $300 in bonus bets guaranteed when betting this game!
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Nevada Wolf Pack
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 13, 2025, 5:00 PM EDT
- Venue: Mackay Stadium, Reno, NV
- Broadcast: MW Network
Middle Tennessee vs Nevada Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Nevada -8.5 | Nevada -320 / MTSU +260 | 49.5 |
Key Storylines
- Middle Tennessee’s Offensive Struggles: The Blue Raiders have faced significant challenges on offense, averaging just 12 points per game and ranking 131st in third-down conversion percentage at 19.2%. Their rushing game has been particularly ineffective with only 38.5 yards per game, placing them 136th nationally.
- Nevada’s Defensive Improvements: After a 20-17 victory over Sacramento State, the Wolf Pack are 1-1 on the season. Defensive end Jonathan Maldonado’s game-winning pick-six was the work of a defense that has the potential to capitalize on opponents’ mistakes.
- MTSU’s Early Struggles: Middle Tennessee is 0-2 so far this season. They lost to FCS Austin Peay by 20 points to start their season before losing 42-10 to Wisconsin. This is their best chance for a win over an FBS opponent so far this year but things look bleak for the Blue Raiders.
- Quarterback Play: Nevada’s Chubba Purdy has struggled with no touchdown passes and three interceptions early in the season. Middle Tennessee’s quarterback Nicholas Vattiato has struggled with consistency. He has barely completed half of his passes this season and needs to step up for his team to win here.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Middle Tennessee is 0-2 against the spread to start this season.
- Nevada is 1-1 against the spread in their first two games of the 2025 campaign.
- The Blue Raiders are 1-1 in the over/under market early in the year.
- The Wolf Pack have also split their first two games in the over/under market.
- This is the first-ever meeting between these two college football programs.
Middle Tennessee vs Nevada Model Projection
Score Projection: Nevada 28 – Middle Tennessee 17
Win Probability: Nevada 80%, Middle Tennessee 20%
Final Thoughts
Nevada has struggled early in the season and isn’t likely to be a very good team this year. But they should be able to take advantage of just how bad the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders have been. MTSU has a loss to an FCS team under its belt already this year. They should struggle here as well against a lower-level FBS foe. I’ll lay the points with Nevada in this contest, as the Blue Raiders should continue what has been a dreadful start to the season.
