Memphis vs Troy Pick & Prediction – 9/13/2025
Memphis will hit the road to face Troy on Saturday a Week 3 college football matchup. Memphis is off to a 2-0 start and has beaten one Sun Belt team already this season. They will look for a second straight win over a Sun Belt opponent here as they take on a Troy team that has split its first two games of the year. Here, I take a closer look at both of these teams and make my Memphis vs Troy prediction before kickoff.
Our Memphis vs Troy Pick
- Pick: Memphis -3.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Memphis Tigers vs Troy Trojans
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 13, 2025, 12:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Veterans Memorial Stadium at Larry Blakeney Field, Troy, AL
- Broadcast: ESPNU
Key Storylines
- Memphis has won two straight games over FCS Chattanooga and Georgia State to begin their season. Both of those wins have come by over three touchdowns and another strong performance from Memphis could start to earn them more top 25 consideration.
- Troy lost to Clemson last week by a score of 27-16. That was an admirable performance from the Trojans against an ACC opponent. But Clemson has struggled early this year and we will learn more about just how good the Trojans are in this challenging matchup at home.
- This is the first game of the season for Memphis on the road and there is always the possiblity that they take a big step back from what we have seen in the first two weeks.
Quarterback Play
Memphis: Brendon Lewis leads Memphis in both rushing and passing yardage through two games. He has accounted for just under 550 yards between his arm and his legs and he has accounted for three total touchdowns. He has completed just over 79% of his passes and his efficiency in this contest is going to be important for the Tigers.
Troy: Goose Crowder is a quarterback we haven’t had the chance to learn much about this season. He was very good against FCS Nicholls State and not so much against mighty Clemson. Both of those outcomes were to be expected and this game should be the most representative test for Crowder that we have seen so far this year.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Troy is 1-1 against the spread so far this season.
- Memphis is 2-0 against the spread in 2025.
- The Tigers are 1-1 on the over/under market this season.
- Troy is 1-1 in their totals on the year.
Memphis vs Troy Model Projection
Score Projection: Memphis 27 – Troy 23
Win Probability: Memphis 59% – Troy 41%
Final Thoughts
This game is going to be an interesting test on both sides. Memphis will try to prove itself as a team that can win on the road and Troy is trying to beat a team near its level of competition for the first time this season. I think that Memphis will be the team to pass their test thanks to the dual-threat ability of Lewis and a solid start on defense.
