The Liberty Flames and Bowling Green Falcons will play in a non-conference college football game on Saturday. Both teams are coming off Week 2 losses and will be eager to rebound in this matchup. Before kickoff from Ohio, you can find my analysis for this game and my Liberty vs Bowling Green prediction below.
Our Liberty vs Bowling Green Pick
- Pick: Bowling Green +5.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Liberty Flames vs Bowling Green Falcons
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 13, 2025, 5:00 PM ET
- Venue: Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, OH
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Storylines
Liberty’s Offensive Balance: Quarterback Ethan Vasko has been efficient, passing for 532 yards with five touchdowns and one interception. Running back Jaden Dickens adds a dynamic element to the Liberty offense. He rushed for 114 yards and a touchdown in the previous game. This balanced attack poses a challenge for Bowling Green’s defense.
Bowling Green’s Quarterback Play: Drew Pyne is a graduate junior with experience at multiple programs and he leads the Falcons. Pyne has not piled up the numbers early in this season. He has just one touchdown pass through two games and will need to do more here if the Falcons are going to win on their home turf.
First FBS Win Of 2025: Both of these teams are 1-1 on the year. They are both 1-0 against FCS opponents and 0-1 against FBS competition. They have the chance to get their first win over an FBS opponent of the season with a win here. Who will get that win will likely be decided by which passing game can wake up and perform at a higher level.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Liberty is 0-2 against the spread to start the season.
- Bowling Green is 1-1 against the spread to this point in the year.
- Liberty is 1-1 in the over/under market for the season.
- Bowling Green has also split each of their first two games in the over/under market.
- These teams have played twice all-time. They are 1-1 against each other and Liberty won the most recent game between them in 2023.
Liberty vs Bowling Green Model Projection
Score Projection: Liberty 31 – Bowling Green 28
Win Probability: Liberty 65%, Bowling Green 35%
Final Thoughts
Liberty enters this matchup with a more potent offense through the air so far. But Bowling Green was competitive defensively against Cincinnati out of the Big 12 in their last game. We should see that continue against a Liberty team that is still adjusting to life after Kaidon Salter’s transfer at the end of last season. I am going to take the points with Bowling Green in this game, as they should be able to get enough stops to keep this contest within a field goal or so in either direction.
