James Madison (1-1) will head into a tough road test this Saturday when they visit Liberty (1-2) at Williams Stadium in Lynchburg. The Dukes are favored on the road and will look to prolong the two-game losing streak of the Flames in this non-conference matchup. Here, I break down this matchup and give you my James Madison vs Liberty prediction.
Our James Madison vs Liberty Pick
- Pick: James Madison –7.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: James Madison Dukes vs Liberty Flames
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 20, 2025, 3:30 PM ET
- Venue: Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, VA
- Broadcast: ESPNU
Key Storylines
- Passing vs. run dominance: James Madison enters with a weak passing offense, averaging about 141.0 passing yards per game. Liberty’s pass defense is strong, allowing just around 110 passing yards per game. This suggests JMU will need to lean heavily on its running game. Liberty’s run defense has been poor, giving up over 200 rushing yards per game. James Madison runs the ball well, so this could be a key edge for the Dukes.
- Liberty’s offensive inconsistency: Liberty’s passing game is middle of the pack in college football. Their leading QB, Ethan Vasko, has been decent through air, but their rushing and red-zone execution have been spotty. They will need to avoid mistakes to get their first win over an FBS opponent this season.
- Recent form and mental momentum: JMU lost to Louisville in their last game but they showed fight. Liberty is playing poorly but will try to put an end to that at home.
Quarterback Play
For James Madison, Alonza Barnett III is a low-volume passer so far this year. The run game will need to carry the load unless the Dukes choose to put the ball in the air more often. Liberty’s Ethan Vasko has put up six touchdowns and three interceptions to this point in the year. He’s capable but must avoid turnovers and make good decisions to help his team get a much-needed victory.
Betting Trends & H2H
- James Madison is 2-0 against the spread this season. Liberty is 0-3 ATS.
- Both of James Madison’s games have gone under their totals to start the season. Liberty is 1-2 on their totals in 2025.
- James Madison is 12-6 all-time against Liberty. These programs haven’t played each other since 2014.
James Madison vs Liberty Model Projection
Score Projection: James Madison 28 – Liberty 17
Win Probability: James Madison 72%, Liberty 28%
Final Thoughts
I project that James Madison is going to win this game on the road and cover the spread in the process. The Dukes are going to be able to lean on their running game, while the lack of consistent offense from Liberty will cost them once again. The Flames will drop their third game in a row and remain winless against FBS competition as conference play draws closer for both teams.
