Iowa and Iowa State will meet in the annual Cy-Hawk rivalry game this Saturday in Ames. Both teams entering the game undefeated and the Cyclones are favored by a field goal at home going into Week 2. This game will tell us a lot about what we can expect from both of these teams going forward this year. Who will win it? We attempt to pick the winner here and you can find our Iowa vs Iowa State prediction below.
Our Iowa vs Iowa State Pick
- Pick: Iowa State -3
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Iowa Hawkeyes vs Iowa State Cyclones
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM EDT
- Venue: Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA
- Broadcast: FOX
Iowa vs Iowa State Odds
| Odds | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | +3 | +130 | Over 41.5 |
| Iowa State | -3 | -155 | Under 41.5 |
Key Storylines
- Quarterback Play: Iowa’s Mark Gronowski didn’t have to do much in his first game this season. He threw for just 44 yards in a 34-7 win over UAlbany and he will have to put the ball in the air more in this matchup. Iowa State’s Rocco Becht has been more effective. He has thrown for 461 yards and five touchdowns in the first two games.
- Running Game: Iowa’s Xavier Williams leads the team with 122 rushing yards and a touchdown. He made light work of the Albany Great Danes of the FCS in his team’s season opener. Iowa State’s Carson Hansen has contributed 90 rushing yards in two games for a more pass-heavy Iowa State offense.
- Defensive Matchup: Iowa’s defense is known for being one of the toughest to score against in college football. But this game will be the first real test for the Hawkeyes after they cruised in a guarantee game in Week 1. Iowa State held Kansas State to 21 points in Week 0 and are off to an impressive start on defense as well.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Iowa State: The Cyclones are 2-0 against the spread through two games. They are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games.
- Iowa: Iowa failed to cover the spread in their first game of the season against UAlbany.
- Head-to-Head: Iowa leads the all-time series 47-24 over Iowa State. Iowa State has won two of the last three games between these in-state rivals.
Iowa vs Iowa State Model Projection
- Score Projection: Iowa State 28 – Iowa 23
- Win Probability: Iowa State 65%, Iowa 35%
Final Thoughts
Iowa’s historical success over Iowa State should be respected going into this game. But I do think that this year’s Iowa State team has more than enough firepower to get the win and cover the spread in this game. Iowa’s passing game will be tested this week in a way it was not tested last week. I expect Iowa to fail that test and for the Cyclones to move to 3-0 and move closer to a top-15 spot in the rankings going into next week.
