The Iowa State Cyclones and Arkansas State Red Wolves will do battle in Week 3 of the college football season. The Cyclones have won three games in a row to start their season and will look to stay in the top 15 in the country with a win here. But they are on the road against a Group of Five opponent who will be desperate to upset them. Before kickoff from Jonesboro on Saturday, continue reading to get my Iowa State vs Arkansas State prediction.
Our Iowa State vs Arkansas State Pick
- Pick: Iowa State -20.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Iowa State Cyclones vs Arkansas State Red Wolves
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 13, 2025, 4:00 PM EDT
- Venue: Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, AR
- Broadcast: ESPN2
Key Storylines
- Iowa State’s Strong Start: The Cyclones enter the game with a 3-0 record. Their most recent win was a tight 16-13 victory over Iowa in their last outing. The win in the CyHawk rivalry was their second over a power conference team this season. They are ranked 14th in the country and they have a chance to put themselves in great shape before conference play resumes.
- Arkansas State’s Defensive Struggles: The Red Wolves were blown out in their first game against an FBS opponent this season. They gave up 56 points to the Arkansas Razorbacks on the road last week. They are at home for this game but their defense could be vulnerable against a very good Iowa State offense.
Quarterback Play
Iowa State: Rocco Becht has been a steady presence under center for Iowa State. He has completed 51 of 75 passes for 595 yards and six touchdowns. His ability to manage the game and make key throws has been a huge factor in the Cyclones’ success.
Arkansas State: Jaylen Raynor has shown potential, throwing for 470 yards and four touchdowns. However, his two interceptions against Arkansas highlight areas for improvement. The Red Wolves will need Raynor to play mistake-free football to stay competitive.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Iowa State is 2-0-1 against the spread so far this season.
- Arkansas State is 1-1 against the spread so far in 2025.
- Iowa State is 1-2 on the over/under market so far this year.
- Both of Arkansas State’s games this season have gone over the total.
Iowa State vs Arkansas State Model Projection
Score Projection: Iowa State 38 – Arkansas State 17
Win Probability: Iowa State 89%, Arkansas State 11%
Final Thoughts
The Iowa State Cyclones enter this matchup as significant favorites thanks to a strong defense and efficient offense. Arkansas State’s defensive vulnerabilities and inconsistency at quarterback will pose challenges. While the Red Wolves have the potential to make it competitive, I think the Cyclones’ depth and execution should prevail, making Iowa State -20.5 a solid betting option.
