Big Ten play arrives for Indiana and Illinois on Saturday in a primetime game from Bloomington. Both teams are 3-0 and ranked in the top 20 in the country going into this game. The winner of this game will help their early College Football Playoff hopes and they will be off to a great start in Big Ten play. Here, I break down this huge Big Ten matchup and make my Illinois vs Indiana prediction for this Saturday night game.
Our Illinois vs Indiana Pick
- Pick: Illinois +4.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Illinois Fighting Illini vs Indiana Hoosiers
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 20, 2025, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN
- Broadcast: NBC
Key Storylines
- Illinois is ranked ninth in the country after an impressive start to the season. Indiana is ranked 19th. The winner of this game will help their ranking immensely with an early-season statement win.
- Indiana has won nine straight at Memorial Stadium under head coach Curt Cignetti. The Hoosiers are 2-0 at home this season.
- This game is an early test for the non-conference scheduling philosophy of Indiana. They have chosen to schedule weak competition consistently under Cignetti and we will see how they perform after a weak non-conference slate here.
Quarterback Play
Illinois’ Luke Altmyer is dealing. He has thrown eight touchdown passes and has yet to throw an interception. Altmyer’s yardage numbers aren’t all that impressive. But that has been a product of Illinois being up big late in games more than anything wrong with the starting quarterback of the Illini.
Indiana is off to a nice start thanks in large part to Cal transfer Fernando Mendoza. Mendoza has nine touchdown passes and no interceptions through three weeks. But this will be his first real test as the starting signal caller of the Hoosiers and he will need to prove himself in this spot for his team to be taken seriously going forward.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Illinois is 3-0 against the spread to start the season.
- Indiana has covered the spread in two of their first three games.
- Indiana is 2-1 to the over to start the year.
- Illinois has gone under the total in two of their first three games.
Illinois vs Indiana Model Projection
Score Projection: Illinois 27 – Indiana 24
Win Probability: Illinois 55%, Indiana 45%
Final Thoughts
Indiana is at home in this game and they have played well there under Cignetti so far. But this is the toughest team that Indiana has played at home under Cignetti. We will see Indiana’s defense struggle to contain Altmyer and the potent passing attack of the Illini. I will take the points with Illinois in this game with the expectation that they could end up covering the number in what might end up being the most exciting game of the week in college football.
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