The Illinois Fighting Illini and Duke Blue Devils will face off in a Week 2 college football matchup on Saturday afternoon. Both teams enter the game with a 1-0 record and dominated their respective season openers against FCS opponents. Illinois is ranked No. 11 nationally and Duke is eager to prove itself against a ranked opponent. Before kickoff in Durham, continue reading to get my analysis for this game and my Illinois vs Duke prediction.
Our Illinois vs Duke Pick
- Pick: Duke Moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Illinois Fighting Illini vs Duke Blue Devils
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM EDT
- Venue: Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, NC
- Broadcast: ESPN
Illinois vs Duke Odds
| Betting Market | Illinois | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -2.5 | +2.5 |
| Moneyline | -150 | +130 |
| Total Points | Over 49.5 | Under 49.5 |
Key Storylines
- Illinois’ Road Performance: The Illini have struggled in recent years when playing away against high-major non-conference opponents. That includes losses at Kansas and Virginia. They will try to avoid another letdown against a power confernce opponent.
- Duke’s Offensive Surge: Duke quarterback Darian Mensah threw for 389 yards and three touchdowns in the season opener. He looked great in his Duke debut and will try to reaffirm why he was such a highly sought after transfer quarterback in the offseason.
- Illinois’ Defensive Strength: The Illini defense limited Western Illinois to just three points and 134 passing yards. But that was against an FCS opponent and not an ACC team like Duke.
Quarterback Play
- Illinois: Luke Altmyer completed 17 of 21 passes for 217 yards and three touchdowns in the season opener. He showed the basic composure required to pick apart an inferior defense and he will need to showcase a lot more of that to win this game.
- Duke: Darian Mensah’s 389-yard, three-touchdown performance against Elon highlighted his ability to lead a high-powered offense. This is the first big test for him as the signal caller of the Blue Devils.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Illinois: Illinois is 1-0 against the spread this season.
- Duke: The Blue Devils are 0-1 ATS this season.
- Head-to-Head: The all-time series is tied 1-1. Illinois won the last meeting in 1965.
Illinois vs Duke Model Projection
- Score Projection: Illinois 27 – Duke 28
- Win Probability: Illinois 45%, Duke 55%
Final Thoughts
Illinois enters this game as a slight favorite. But Duke’s potent offense and home-field advantage will make this a closely contested game in either direction. I think that Mensah is going to impress in his first real test as the quarterback of Duke thanks to his ability to improvise and make plays off-script. I’ll take the Blue Devils to win this game on the moneyline in what will be one of the more competitive games of the weekend in college football even if it isn’t as glamorous a matchup as Michigan vs Oklahoma.
