The Fresno State Bulldogs (5-1) will visit the Colorado State Rams in a Mountain West Conference matchup on Friday night. The Rams are struggling offensively and defensively this season, while Fresno State can secure bowl eligibility for the year with a win in this contest. Before kickoff from Fort Collins, continue reading to get my Fresno State vs Colorado State prediction for this week.
Our Fresno State vs Colorado State Pick
- Pick: Fresno State –6.5
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Fresno State Bulldogs vs Colorado State Rams
- Date & Time: Friday, October 10, 2025, 9:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Sonny Lubick Field at Canvas Stadium, Fort Collins, CO
- Broadcast: CBS Sports Network
Fresno State vs Colorado State Odds
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spread | Fresno State –6.5 |
| Moneyline | Fresno State –230, Colorado State +195 |
| Total | 47.5 |
Key Storylines
- Fresno State’s defensive edge: The Bulldogs are allowing about 19.5 points per game, ranking among the top third of FBS defenses. Colorado State has surrendered 27.4 points per game on average and will try to tighten things up to keep things close against Fresno State here.
- Colorado State’s offensive struggles: The Rams rank near the bottom of FBS football in scoring at 17.0 points per game. They have had trouble establishing consistency, especially in the red zone. Their red-zone defense is also weak, allowing opponents to convert 100% of trips.
- Bulldogs look for another conference win: Fresno State has won its first two games in Mountain West Conference play. They have defeated Hawai’i and Nevada, each by a field goal or less. The Bulldogs will try to be more convincing in this contest.
- Home underdog angle: Colorado State will be at home, where they will try to take advantage of having the home crowd on their side. Colorado State is 1-2 at home this year and they have not defeated an FBS opponent yet.
Quarterback Play
Fresno State’s quarterback situation is stable. EJ Warner has led his team to a 5-1 start, but Warner needs to do a better job of avoiding turnovers for the Bulldogs to keep having success. Warner has seven touchdown passes and six interceptions going into this matchup from Fort Collins.
Colorado State went with a combination of Jackson Brousseau and Darius Curry at quarterback in their most recent loss to San Diego State. The Rams have tried several quarterbacks this year and haven’t been able to find a solid solution with any of them just yet.
Betting Trends & H2H
- ATS Trends: Fresno State is 5-1 overall and 3-3 against the spread this season. Colorado State is 1-4 straight up and 2-3 against the spread.
- Over/Under Trends: Fresno State is 3-3 on over/unders so far this year. Colorado State is 2-3 on their totals heading into this week.
- Head-to-Head: Colorado State is 10-6 all-time against Fresno State.
Fresno State vs Colorado State Model Projection
Score Projection: Fresno State 27 – Colorado State 17
Win Probability: Fresno State 68%, Colorado State 32%
Final Thoughts
Colorado State has had the upper hand against Fresno State in their all-time series. But Fresno State looks like a much better football team right now. I expect the Bulldogs to cover the spread as a favorite on the road here, as they secure bowl eligibility at the expense of a Rams team that will drop to 0-5 against FBS competition for the season.
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