The California Golden Bears open their season on Saturday at Reser Stadium when they face the Oregon State Beavers. These former Pac-12 rivals will meet in non-conference action that will feel like a Pac-12 After Dark game. Before the Golden Bears and Beavers kick things off from Corvallis, you can find my Cal vs Oregon State prediction below.
Our Cal vs Oregon State Pick
- Pick: Cal +1.5
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: California Golden Bears vs Oregon State Beavers
- Date & Time: Saturday, August 30, 2025, 10:30 PM EDT
- Venue: Reser Stadium, Corvallis, OR
- Broadcast: ESPN
Cal vs Oregon State Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| California | +1.5 | +105 | Over 51.5 |
| Oregon State | -1.5 | -125 | Under 51.5 |
Key Storylines
- California enters with uncertainty at quarterback. They named true freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele their starting quarterback and we will find out how he handles the spot light in Week 1.
- Cal head coach Justin Wilcox will hope his team can do a better job in one-score games in 2025. Cal went 6-7 and lost five games by single digits. There will be a need for improved late-game execution from the Bears this year.
- Oregon State brings in transfer QB Maalik Murphy from Duke. The Beavers will hope that Murphy is the answer under center after a couple of down years at the quarterback position.
- The Beavers have home-field advantage and are in search of offensive growth under first-year HC Trent Bray. Cal faces questions on both sides entering hostile territory.
Quarterback Play
- California: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele comes into his college football life having set the record for most passing yards by a high school quarterback in Hawai’i history. That record was previously held by Dillon Gabriel, who has made it to the NFL.
- Oregon State: Maalik Murphy arrives with a strong track record. He had nearly 3,000 passing yards and 26 TDs at Duke. If he can get off to a good start for the Beavers in this game it could give them a ton of optimism moving forward.
Betting Trends & H2H
- California holds a slight edge in the all-time series between these teams. They are up 40-37 over the Beavers. Cal won the last meeting between these teams last season by a score of 44-7.
- Oregon State has won its last four home openers.
Cal vs Oregon State Model Projection
Score Projection: California 27 – Oregon State 28
Win Probability: California 46%, Oregon State 54%
Final Thoughts
We are going to see a much closer game between these teams than the 44-7 blowout that we saw last year. This game could go either way as far as I’m concerned. My projections have Oregon State winning by a point. Obviously, there could be some variance in either direction to swing the outcome. I’ll take Cal to cover the spread but I think it’s as close to a toss-up as you can get.
