Boise State and South Florida will open things up on the first Thursday of the 2025 college football season. The Broncos come into this season ranked in the top 25 and will look to land a non-conference road win to start their campaign. Before this game starts in Tampa, be sure to continue reading to get my Boise State vs South Florida prediction.
Our Boise State vs South Florida Pick
- Pick: Boise State –6.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Boise State vs South Florida
- Date & Time: Thursday, August 28, 2025, 5:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
- Broadcast: ESPN
Boise State vs USF Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Boise State –6.5 | Boise State –225 / South Florida +190 | 63.5 |
Key Storylines
- Boise State looks to replace RB Ashton Jeanty with a committee led by Malik Sherrod, Sire Gaines, and others. Broncos QB Maddux Madsen returns after a 3,000-yard, 23-TD season in 2024.
- USF also returns rising dual-threat QB Byrum Brown. Brown is healthy now after a leg injury in 2024 and he will look to lead an uptempo Bulls offense.
- Boise State is solid defensively and experienced overall. South Florida’s defense remains a point of concern. They ranked near the bottom of the FBS in defense last year.
- This game has early playoff implications for Boise. The Broncos are ranked to start the season and winning games will keep them in the hunt to earn a playoff bid as the top-ranked Group of Five team.
Quarterback Play
Maddux Madsen brings a steady head to Boise State’s offense. I think Madsen was very underrated last season as he was very good while all of the attention was on Ashton Jeanty’s year at running back. Byrum Brown offers dynamism and tempo for USF. But the question for Brown is how he will perform in his return to action.
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the first-ever matchup between Boise State and South Florida in college football.
- Boise State went 7-7 against the spread a season ago.
- USF had a 7-6 record against the spread in 2024.
- Boise also went 7-7 in the over/under market last year.
- USF went 7-5-1 to the over in their games last season.
Boise State vs South Florida Model Projection
Score Projection: Boise State 31 – South Florida 24
Win Probability: Boise State 57%, South Florida 43%
Final Thoughts
This is not the biggest matchup in Week 1 of the college football season. But it is one of the most significant. Boise State has virtually no margin for error if they want to make the College Football Playoff for the second year in a row. It will be interesting to see how they respond to that pressure of knowing that one loss could end their season almost immediately.
I think that Boise State will respond well to that pressure and cover the spread as a road favorite here. I am high on Madsen going into this season and think he makes an early statement in an impressive showing from the Broncos offense. I’ll go with Boise State to win by a touchdown here.
