Two ranked teams will collide in Norman on Saturday as Auburn visits Oklahoma in an important early SEC game. Both teams are off to 3-0 starts this season and will look to keep things rolling in their first conference matchup of the 2025 campaign. Before kickoff from Oklahoma, you can continue reading to get my breakdown of this game, including my Auburn vs Oklahoma prediction.
Our Auburn vs Oklahoma Pick
- Pick: Under 49.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Auburn Tigers vs Oklahoma Sooners
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 20, 2025, 3:30 pm ET
- Venue: Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK
- Broadcast: ABC
Key Storylines
- Both teams are unbeaten and have won against a power conference opponent already. Auburn won at Baylor to start their season and Oklahoma beat Michigan at home. Both teams will look to start their SEC season off with a win here.
- The defense of Oklahoma has been a major story early in the season. They have allowed a total of 19 points through three games and they will look to continue shutting down their opponents in their biggest test of the season so far.
Quarterback Play
John Mateer, Oklahoma: The Washington State transfer has given the Sooners their best quarterback since Lincoln Riley left for USC. Mateer has entered the Heisman Trophy conversation and he has five touchdown passes through three weeks. Mateer can also make plays with his legs and his ability to improvise will be tested here.
Jackson Arnold, Auburn: The former Sooner has flourished out of the gate for Hugh Freeze. He has four touchdown passes and no interceptions to this point in the season. Arnold will look to get a huge win over his former team and continuing to play mistake-free football will be a deciding factor in this game.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Auburn is 1-2 against the spread so far this season.
- Oklahoma is off to a 2-1 start against the spread.
- Both teams have seen the majority of their games stay under their totals. Auburn is 1-2 on totals and Oklahoma is 0-3.
- Oklahoma is 2-0 all-time against Auburn. That includes a win over the Tigers last year.
Auburn vs Oklahoma Model Projection
Score Projection: Auburn 20 – Oklahoma 24
Win Probability: Auburn 44% Oklahoma 56%
Final Thoughts
I would lean toward Oklahoma winning this game over Auburn. That is primarily a product of Oklahoma playing at home and having a slightly more dangerous quarterback in Mateer. But I think the total is a better choice in the betting markets than either side. I think that the under is going to hit in this matchup. Both teams have seen over half of their early-season games stay under their totals. The Oklahoma defense should ensure that this game stays under the total as well. Look for the Sooners to shut down Auburn to keep this game under its total on Saturday.
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