The Arizona State Sun Devils will head to Starkville to face the Mississippi State Bulldogs in college football on Saturday. Both teams earned convincing victories over inferior opponents in Week 1. Arizona State will look for a win on the road to keep their top-15 ranking beyond this week. Can they get that win? I attempt to answer that question and more below as I bring you my Arizona State vs Mississippi State prediction.
Our Arizona State vs Mississippi State Pick
- Pick: Under 59.5
- Confidence: 3 out of 5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Arizona State Sun Devils vs Mississippi State Bulldogs
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 6, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
- Broadcast: ESPN2
Arizona State vs Mississippi State Odds
| Odds | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona State | –6.5 | –225 | 59.5 |
| Mississippi State | +6.5 | +190 |
Key Storylines
- The Sun Devils enter as a ranked team with a potent offense led by quarterback Sam Leavitt. They steamrolled FCS Northern Arizona and will look for a win over a power conference opponent here.
- Mississippi State got by Southern Miss on the road in a rare non-conference road game for an SEC team against a Group of Five team. The Bulldogs are thought of as one of the worst power conference teams this year and will try to prove their doubters wrong with a win here.
- Arizona State is facing an unranked opponent here. But they are on the road in an SEC environment and that could make life tougher than usual for the Sun Devils.
Quarterback Play
Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt got off to a strong start in Week 1. He completed 25 of 39 passes for 257 yards, 2 touchdowns, and an interception. He rushed for 73 yards and added two more scores on the ground against Northern Arizona. He will face a bigger test here against an SEC opponent.
Mississippi State’s Blake Shapen was efficient against Southern Miss. He completed 26 of 34 pass attempts for 270 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Both quarterbacks showed promise in Week 1 but we will learn more about both quarterbacks this week than we did last week.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Mississippi State covered the spread in Week 1 and Arizona State failed to cover as a huge favorite against NAU.
- Arizona State beat Mississippi State by a touchdown at home last year.
- ASU is 0-2 all-time on the road against SEC opponents.
Arizona State vs Mississippi State Model Projection
Score Projection: Arizona State 31 – Mississippi State 24
Win Probability: Arizona State 55%, Mississippi State 45%
Final Thoughts
I think that Arizona State will win this game on the road against arguably the worst power conference team in college football. But I think that the final margin will be very tight to the point spread. Instead of betting on the point spread, I think the under is a better play from a betting standpoint. Both offenses had their share of struggles against vastly inferior teams last week and they should both score less than they did in Week 1 here.
