The App State Mountaineers will visit the Southern Miss Golden Eagles in Week 3 of the college football season on Saturday. This is the Sun Belt Conference opener for both of these teams and is a huge opportunity for both of them to get off to a good start in the league standings. Here, I take a closer look at this early-season Sun Belt matchup and give you my App State vs Southern Miss prediction.
Our App State vs Southern Miss Pick
- Pick: Appalachian State -3.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Appalachian State Mountaineers vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 13, 2025, 7:00 PM EDT
- Venue: M.M. Roberts Stadium, Hattiesburg, MS
- Broadcast: ESPN+
App State vs Southern Miss Odds
| Bet Type | Appalachian State | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -3.5 | +3.5 |
| Moneyline | -170 | +145 |
| Total | Over 57.5 | Under 57.5 |
Key Storylines
- Appalachian State’s Balanced Offense: The Mountaineers have demonstrated a well-rounded offensive attack. They have effectively utilized both their passing and rushing games to control tempo and sustain drives.
- Southern Miss’s Defensive Struggles: The Golden Eagles have faced challenges defensively. They have struggled particularly with stopping the run. That is something that could be exploited by Appalachian State’s versatile offense.
- Home Field Advantage: Southern Miss will look to ride the support of their home crowd to disrupt App State’s rhythm and gain momentum. This is also the first road game of the season for App State and it will be interesting what kind of level we see from them in their first game away from their home turf.
Quarterback Play
- Appalachian State: Mountaineers quarterback AJ Swann has shown poise and efficiency early in the season. He is making key throws under pressure and managing the game effectively. He has five touchdown passes to just one interception so far this year.
- Southern Miss: Golden Eagles quarterback Braylon Braxton is also off to a decent start for Southern Miss. He has thrown five touchdown passes to just one interception early in the year. He will look to guide his team to its first win over an FBS opponent on the season.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Both teams are 1-1 against the spread to start the season.
- App State is 1-1 in their over/unders to begin the year.
- Southern Miss has gone under the total in each of its first two games of the season.
- Southern Miss has a 2-1 lead in the all-time series against App State. App State won the last game between these teams in 2023.
App State vs Southern Miss Model Projection
- Score Projection: Appalachian State 27 – Southern Miss 20
- Win Probability: Appalachian State 55%, Southern Miss 45%
Final Thoughts
Both teams have had solid quarterback play early in the season. But I think that App State’s offense has the potential to have sustained success in the long run. I will lay the points with the Mountaineers in this game as they should improve to 3-0 by getting a win in their first road test of the 2025 season.
