College football blue bloods will meet at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee on Saturday. The Alabama Crimson Tide and Florida State Seminoles both failed to make the College Football Playoff last season. Alabama is expected to contend for a spot this year and will look to start their year with a road win over a power conference program in Florida State. Before the action begins on Saturday, continue reading to get my Alabama vs Florida State prediction.
Our Alabama vs Florida State Pick
- Pick: Alabama –13.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Alabama Crimson Tide vs Florida State Seminoles
- Date & Time: Saturday, August 30, 2025, 3:30 PM ET
- Venue: Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
- Broadcast: ABC
Alabama vs Florida State Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama –13.5 | Alabama –650 / FSU +425 | 50.5 |
Key Storylines
- Florida State opens in a newly renovated Doak Campbell Stadium with a boosted capacity of 67,277. But rising ticket prices and a rebuilding program could mute the impact of their new digs.
- FSU’s rebuild under sixth-year head coach Mike Norvell aims to reset after a disastrous 2024 season. Their season win total sits at 7.5 and their ACC championship odds are at +2700.
- Alabama has historically dominated their season openers against power conference opponents. But that could change as the memories of past glory under Nick Saban move further into their rearview mirror.
- The last meeting between these teams was in 2017. Alabama won that game 24‑7 in Atlanta and FSU looks to avoid a similar early setback here.
Quarterback Play
Alabama named Ty Simpson as its starting quarterback. He returns alongside rising star receiver Ryan Williams. Williams posted 48 catches for 865 yards and 8 touchdowns as a freshman and will try to contend with Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith for the title of the best wide receiver in the nation this year.
Thomas Castellanos is set to begin the season under center for Florida State. Castellanos had a nice start to last season for Boston College. He will try to be an upgrade over what we saw from DJ Uiagalelei last year but that isn’t a high bar for a quarterback to clear.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Alabama is 9‑0 against the spread in their last nine Week 1 openers.
- FSU is 1‑8 ATS in their last nine August openers.
- The consensus spread has shifted from around –11.5 to –13.5 as bettors have backed the Crimson Tide with abandon.
Alabama vs Florida State Model Projection
Score Projection: Alabama 32 – Florida State 10
Win Probability: Alabama 90%, Florida State 10%
Final Thoughts
These two programs both have rich histories in college football. But they are in two very different places right now. Alabama is at least on the path to College Football Playoff contention and Florida State is stuck in rebuilding mode. I think we see Alabama win convincingly this week as the SEC gets a big win in one of the marquee matchups of Week 1.
