Utah State Aggies vs UCLA Bruins Prediction – 3/20/2025

The NCAA Tournament's first round features an intriguing matchup between the 10th-seeded Utah State Aggies and the 7th-seeded UCLA Bruins. Scheduled for Thursday, March 20, 2025, at 9:25 PM ET at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky, this game promises to be a compelling contest between two teams with contrasting styles and strengths.

Utah State Aggies vs. UCLA Bruins Game Preview

Utah State enters the tournament with a 26-7 overall record, finishing third in the Mountain West Conference with a 15-5 mark. The Aggies' high-powered offense averages 80.9 points per game, ranking them 33rd nationally. They shoot 49.0% from the field and 36.5% from three-point range. Key contributors include Ian Martinez, who leads the team with 16.8 points per game, and Mason Falslev, adding 14.9 points and 6.2 rebounds per game. The Aggies' defense allows 70.0 points per game, with opponents shooting 44.0% from the field and 33.9% from beyond the arc.

UCLA boasts a 22-10 record, finishing fourth in the Big Ten Conference at 13-7. The Bruins' defense is a standout, allowing just 65.1 points per game, placing them 22nd nationally. They hold opponents to 42.8% shooting from the field and 32.0% from three-point range. Offensively, UCLA averages 74.9 points per game, shooting 47.2% from the field and 35.4% from three-point territory. Tyler Bilodeau leads the team with 13.6 points per game, while Eric Dailey Jr. contributes 11.6 points and 4.1 rebounds per game. The Bruins' defense is particularly effective at forcing turnovers, averaging takeaways on 22.8% of opponent possessions, ranking seventh nationally.

Betting Insights

As of the latest reports, sportsbooks have set the following lines for this matchup:

• Point Spread: UCLA -5.5
• Over/Under: 144.5 points

Utah State has an against-the-spread (ATS) record of 16-16 this season, while UCLA stands at 18-13-1 ATS. The Aggies have struggled as underdogs, posting a 7-12 ATS record in such situations. Conversely, the Bruins have performed well against good shooting teams, with a 32-23 ATS record against teams making 45% of their shots or more.

Utah State Aggies vs. UCLA Bruins Prediction

This game presents a classic offense-versus-defense scenario. Utah State's potent offense will be tested against UCLA's formidable defense. The Bruins' ability to force turnovers and limit scoring opportunities could disrupt the Aggies' rhythm. Additionally, UCLA's experience in a more competitive conference and their defensive prowess provide them with an edge in this matchup.

Considering these factors, the prediction is that UCLA will cover the 5.5-point spread. The Bruins' defense is likely to stifle the Aggies' offensive output, leading to a final score in the vicinity of UCLA 76, Utah State 67. Bettors might also consider the under on the total points, given UCLA's defensive capabilities and the potential for a lower-scoring game.

As always, it's important to consider all factors and conduct thorough research before placing any bets. This analysis is based on current information and trends leading up to the game.