LSU Tigers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Pick – 3/12/2025

The LSU Tigers and Mississippi State Bulldogs are set to face off in the first round of the SEC Tournament on Wednesday, March 12, 2025, at 7:00 PM Eastern Time. This matchup, taking place at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, presents an intriguing contest between two teams looking to advance in postseason play.

LSU Tigers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Game Preview

LSU enters the tournament with a 14-17 overall record, including a 3-15 mark in SEC play. The Tigers have struggled recently, losing their last five games, all against ranked opponents, by an average margin of 15.2 points. Offensively, LSU averages 74.2 points per game, shooting 44.6% from the field and 30.9% from three-point range. Camryn Carter leads the team with 16.5 points per game, while Jalen Reed contributes 11.1 points and 6.5 rebounds per contest. Defensively, the Tigers allow 73 points per game and force 11.5 turnovers per outing.

Mississippi State holds a 20-11 overall record and finished 8-10 in SEC play. The Bulldogs have also faced challenges down the stretch, losing four of their last five games. Despite this, they maintain a strong offensive presence, averaging 79.6 points per game on 45.2% shooting from the field. Josh Hubbard leads the team with 18.3 points per game, ranking fourth in the SEC. On defense, Mississippi State allows 74.2 points per game and forces 13.3 turnovers per contest.

Betting Insights

• Point Spread: Mississippi State is favored by 8.5 points.
• Over/Under: The total is set at 147.5 points.

Mississippi State has a 14-17 record against the spread (ATS) this season, covering in six of 11 games when favored by 8.5 points or more. LSU has a 13-18 ATS record, going 4-8 when playing as at least 8.5-point underdogs. In their previous meeting on March 1, 2025, the Bulldogs defeated the Tigers by 12 points, covering the spread as 11.5-point favorites.

Betting Trends

• Mississippi State is 5-0 ATS in their last five games against LSU.
• The total has gone under in three of the last five matchups between these teams.
• LSU has lost their last five games by an average of 15.2 points.
• Mississippi State's last five games have averaged a combined 90.6 points allowed per game.

LSU Tigers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction

Considering the recent form of both teams, Mississippi State appears to have the upper hand. The Bulldogs' balanced offense, led by Josh Hubbard, and their ability to force turnovers could exploit LSU's defensive vulnerabilities. Additionally, Mississippi State's recent success against LSU, including a 12-point victory earlier this month, suggests they can cover the 8.5-point spread. Therefore, the recommendation is to take Mississippi State to cover the spread, with the total likely staying under 147.5 points.