Updated September 9, 2026
The NFL Defensive Player of the Year race is led by a familiar name at the front, but the gap is small enough to keep this market competitive. Myles Garrett enters 2026 as the reigning winner after a record-setting season, while Will Anderson Jr. and Aidan Hutchinson have established themselves as credible threats. A deep group of pass rushers sits behind them with enough talent to change the race quickly.
Polymarket currently treats Garrett as the favorite, with Anderson and Hutchinson forming the next tier behind him. The gap between first and third is far from decisive, especially so early in the year. Traders are clearly giving Garrett credit for his dominance, yet the market is not treating a repeat as inevitable.
The next group starts with Nik Bonitto, followed by Micah Parsons and Maxx Crosby. Parsons is especially difficult to assess because his knee recovery will keep him out for at least the first 4 games, creating an early statistical deficit that the market may not fully be able to price.
Garrett is the logical favorite after producing an NFL-record 23 sacks and 33 tackles for loss in 2025, then winning his second Defensive Player of the Year award. He was traded from Cleveland to Los Angeles during the offseason and now joins a Rams front that also features Aaron Donald after Donald ended his retirement. Garrett has posted double-digit sacks in 8 straight seasons, and the talent around him could make it harder for offenses to devote extra blockers to his side.
Anderson looks like the strongest challenger to Garrett. He finished 2025 with 12 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, and First-Team All-Pro honors while becoming a Defensive Player of the Year finalist. Houston signed him to a contract extension in April, and he enters his fourth season with 30 career sacks. His production has risen every year, giving him a clear path to the award if he climbs into the upper tier of sack leaders.
Hutchinson produced 14.5 sacks across 17 games in 2025. Detroit finished tied for fourth in the league with 49 sacks, and the club added more defensive-line depth around him for 2026. Hutchinson has the markers voters often reward: heavy snap volume, strong pressure production, and a role as the centerpiece of his defense. A season above 15 sacks on an improved Detroit team could push him toward the top of the market.
Bonitto is coming off 14 sacks, 28 quarterback hits, and his second straight Pro Bowl season. Denver led the NFL in sacks for a second consecutive year and set a franchise record with 68 in 2025. That environment gives Bonitto a strong statistical base, although playing in such a productive pass-rush group can spread credit across several defenders.
Parsons recorded 12.5 sacks in 14 games last season and has reached at least 12 sacks in each of his first 5 NFL seasons. The issue for him is availability. Green Bay placed him on the physically unable to perform list as he continues his recovery from a torn ACL, guaranteeing that he will miss at least 4 games. Winning this award after giving the field that large a head start would require an exceptional return.
Crosby finished 2025 with 10 sacks and 28 tackles for loss despite missing the final 2 games. He ranked second in the league in tackles for loss and remained the central figure on the Raiders' defense. His case is built on workload and disruption rather than sacks alone, but Las Vegas likely needs a better overall season for Crosby to match the national attention of the leading candidates.
Garrett is my pick to repeat as Defensive Player of the Year. The move to the Rams gives him a better supporting cast than he had in Cleveland, and Donald's return could create protection problems that offenses cannot solve with one adjustment. Garrett does not need another 23-sack season to remain the most persuasive candidate if Los Angeles fields one of the league's best defenses.
