NFL Defensive Player of the Year Futures Analysis & Predictions
Updated September 30, 2026
Updated September 30, 2026
The NFL Defensive Player of the Year race has been shaken up early in the 2026 season. Myles Garrett's injury situation has opened the door for other players to contend, and Will Anderson Jr. and Aidan Hutchinson have established themselves as credible threats at the top of the market. A deep group of pass rushers sits behind them with enough talent to change the race quickly.
Polymarket currently treats Will Anderson as the favorite, with Hutchinson behind him. The gap between the top two and the third spot is growing, something that can change given that we are so early in the year. Any player who racks up sacks in a hurry over the next few weeks could rise up the ranks quickly to challenge Anderson and Hutchinson, while those favorites could also distance themselves further by continuing to produce.
Anderson looks like the strongest challenger to win this award. He finished 2025 with 12 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, and First-Team All-Pro honors while becoming a Defensive Player of the Year finalist. Houston signed him to a contract extension in April, and he entered his fourth season with 30 career sacks. While Houston's offense has struggled this year, Anderson certainly has not, as he has made life miserable for opposing quarterbacks.
Hutchinson produced 14.5 sacks across 17 games in 2025. Detroit finished tied for fourth in the league with 49 sacks, and the club added more defensive-line depth around him for 2026. Hutchinson has the markers voters often reward: heavy snap volume, strong pressure production, and a role as the centerpiece of his defense. He is off to a nice start again in 2026 and will try to chase Anderson down as this season progresses.
One of the favorites to win this award in the NFL predictions market going into this year was TJ Watt. Watt is one of the most prolific sack artists in the recent history of the NFL, and he scored a defensive touchdown on an interception in the opening week of the season to make it clear that he intends to contend for this award again in 2026. He has fallen behind the leaders in this market, but is more than capable of catching up with a few big weeks.
Parsons recorded 12.5 sacks in 14 games last season and has reached at least 12 sacks in each of his first 5 NFL seasons. The issue for him is availability. Green Bay placed him on the physically unable to perform list as he continues his recovery from a torn ACL, guaranteeing that he will miss at least 4 games. Winning this award after giving the field that large a head start would require an exceptional return.
Watt is my pick to win Defensive Player of the Year. Watt's individual numbers are incredible and he contributes to his team's defense with more than just sacks. Look for Pittsburgh's top pass rusher to take advantage of Garrett's injury issues to grab this award this year, even if he has work to do in order to get there.
