NFL Offensive Player of the Year Futures Analysis & Predictions
Updated September 30, 2026
Updated September 30, 2026
The NFL Offensive Player of the Year race features several proven stars with realistic paths to the award. Running backs occupy multiple places near the top of the market, but an elite group of receivers gives this race far more depth than being a simple battle for the rushing title. The current pricing reflects the early season performances from some elite offensive weapons, some of whom have separated themselves from the pack of contenders.
Polymarket currently views Jahmyr Gibbs as the player to beat, though his advantage is slim. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Bijan Robinson are also in early contention to win this award, as they have lit up opposing defenses already this year.
The pricing also highlights how strongly traders value players capable of producing huge yardage totals without playing quarterback. Gibbs, Robinson, and Kenneth Walker III have paths through rushing and receiving production, while Ja'Marr Chase and Jaxon Smith-Njigba can build award cases by threatening the league lead in catches and yards.
Gibbs has the biggest statistical ceiling in the field. Detroit traded David Montgomery during the offseason, opening the door for Gibbs to operate as the unquestioned lead back after spending his first three seasons sharing significant work. Lions running backs coach Tashard Choice said this summer that Gibbs looked better than at any previous point in his professional career. Gibbs is off to a great start thanks to that increased usage, and will be expected to continue putting up numbers.
Robinson may be the most interesting alternative to Gibbs among the running backs. Atlanta has built a large portion of its offense around his versatility, and his ability as both a runner and receiver gives him several ways to compile elite totals. The biggest question is whether the Falcons can generate enough scoring opportunities for Robinson to finish with an award-winning touchdown total. Things looked encouraging after Michael Penix Jr. returned from injury, which should help Robinson.
The defending Offensive Player of the Year cannot be dismissed in this market. Smith-Njigba led the NFL in receiving yards with 1,793 last season while also recording 119 catches and 10 touchdowns. Seattle returns quarterback Sam Darnold and all five starting offensive linemen from its championship team. Repeating an award-winning season is difficult, but Smith-Njigba has already demonstrated that his ceiling belongs with the league's best receivers.
Chase remains one of the top candidates because his production has survived almost every circumstance Cincinnati has faced. He caught 125 passes for 1,412 yards and eight touchdowns in 2025 despite the Bengals using three quarterbacks. He has surpassed 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first five seasons, and Joe Burrow enters 2026 healthy. Chase got off to a slow start this season, but has scored touchdowns in bunches after Week 1, and he will need to keep scoring to contend here.
One of the most interesting players coming into this NFL season was Kansas City running back Kenneth Walker III. Walker won Super Bowl MVP as a member of the Seattle Seahawks last season, but left them in the offseason to join the Chiefs. That decision has paid off for him early on, as he has been a go-to player for the Chiefs in the red zone, while also generating some big plays.
My pick for Offensive Player of the Year is Jahmyr Gibbs. The biggest reason for that is opportunity. He already possessed award-level efficiency while sharing Detroit's backfield, and Montgomery's departure changes his volume equation significantly. Gibbs does not need to become a traditional 25-carry runner every week. A larger rushing share combined with his receiving work can put him near the top of the league in yards from scrimmage while giving him a strong chance to finish among the touchdown leaders.
