Updated September 9, 2026
The NFC West is one of the toughest divisions to handicap this NFL season. Seattle is the defending Super Bowl champion, yet Los Angeles has emerged as the clear favorite in the division winner market. San Francisco still garners enough respect to remain within striking distance, while Arizona has been pushed almost completely out of the conversation. The first few weeks of the season could begin reshaping a market that currently sees a substantial gap between the top three teams and the Cardinals.
The Rams enter 2026 after a 12-5 season that ended one victory short of the Super Bowl. Rather than treating that run as proof the roster was good enough, Los Angeles spent the offseason making an aggressive push for a championship. Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie headline the additions, while Aaron Donald returned from retirement. Matthew Stafford remains in control of an offense built around Puka Nacua, giving Sean McVay a roster with very few obvious weaknesses.
That offseason explains why traders at prediction markets have elevated Los Angeles above the defending champions. The Rams are being valued closer to an outright favorite than one member of a balanced three-team race. Stafford is 38 and the NFC West contains two other legitimate playoff teams, but Los Angeles has enough high-end talent to justify its position.
Seattle has perhaps the strangest valuation in the division. The Seahawks just won the Super Bowl, beating New England 29-13 after also eliminating the Rams during their postseason run. Sam Darnold returns after producing the best season of his career, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba enters 2026 as the reigning Offensive Player of the Year. Mike Macdonald also brings back the core of a defense that became one of the league's best units last season.
Still, the Seahawks did lose meaningful pieces. Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III left in free agency, Zach Charbonnet begins the season on the PUP list, and offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak departed. Defensive contributors Coby Bryant, Boye Mafe, and Riq Woolen also moved on. Seattle tried to protect continuity by promoting an offensive system under Brian Fleury that should remain familiar to Darnold, but repeating last season's near-perfect formula will be difficult.
San Francisco occupies the third spot in the market, but this is hardly a team without a path to first place. The 49ers went 12-5 last season and defeated Philadelphia in the Wild Card round before Seattle ended their season with a decisive divisional-round victory. Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey remain the foundation of Kyle Shanahan's offense, and the receiving group enters the year in healthier condition than it has in recent seasons.
There is a fairly large market discount attached to San Francisco compared with Los Angeles at prediction markets such as Polymarket. Some of that is understandable. Seattle showed how wide the gap could become in January, and the Rams improved substantially during the offseason. San Francisco also endured enough injury concerns during the summer to make traders cautious about expecting another clean run through a demanding division.
The appeal is that San Francisco does not need to be substantially better than the market expects to create value. A victory over Los Angeles in the opener would immediately alter the division picture, and the 49ers get Arizona at home in Week 3 before visiting Seattle in Week 5. Those early divisional games give San Francisco a chance to change its standing before October is over.
Arizona is priced as an extreme outsider, and the reasoning is easy to understand. The Cardinals finished 3-14 last season and have since begun another major reset. Kyler Murray is gone, Jonathan Gannon is gone, and Mike LaFleur begins his first season as head coach with a new quarterback situation. Jacoby Brissett is the starter after throwing for a career-best 3,366 yards in 12 starts last season, while Gardner Minshew and rookie Carson Beck provided additional options.
There are young players worth watching. Marvin Harrison Jr. still has the talent that made him a top-five draft selection, and Arizona has invested heavily in young defensive linemen in recent drafts. The larger issue is whether those pieces can develop quickly enough for the Cardinals to compete with three teams that won 12 or more games last season. That is a huge jump to make in one year.
Los Angeles is my pick to win the NFC West. The market has already identified the Rams as the favorite, so this is not a contrarian selection, but their offseason makes the case difficult to ignore. A 12-win team added Garrett and McDuffie while bringing Donald back into a defense that already had enough young talent to reach the NFC Championship Game. Stafford's age creates risk for Rams backers, but few teams can match the Rams if their most important players stay available.
