NFL Comeback Player of the Year Futures Analysis & Predictions
Updated September 30, 2026
Updated September 30, 2026
The 2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year race is headlined by several quarterbacks trying to restore their standing after injury or poor seasons. Patrick Mahomes is the clear market leader, but Kyler Murray and Michael Penix Jr. have paths to make the race competitive, among others. In this race, opportunity to play and health matter as much as a player's reputation.
Polymarket traders have created a definitive favorite in Mahomes. The Chiefs starter combines the strongest name recognition in the field with a season-long starting role, yet he is returning only months after suffering ACL and LCL injuries in December. His recovery has progressed well enough for Kansas City to expect him to start, but his health is far from guaranteed even after a strong start to this season.
Behind Mahomes, the market gives Murray and Penix respect without placing either close to the favorite. Murray has a new team, an established offensive coach in Kevin O’Connell, and the starting job in Minnesota. Penix is also in the mix after returning from injury to lead the Falcons to some immediate offensive improvement after missing the first two weeks of the season.
Mahomes tore his ACL and LCL late in the 2025 season after posting career lows as a starter in passing yards, touchdown passes, completion rate, and passer rating. Kansas City also missed the playoffs for the first time since 2014. A healthy Mahomes leading the Chiefs back into contention would give voters an easy, highly visible comeback story. The main concern is whether a demanding schedule and a short recovery window keep his statistics below his usual standard.
So far, that has not been a problem for Mahomes at all. He has the Chiefs off to a great start and he is having a ton of success spreading the ball around to all of his offensive weapons. As long as he stays healthy, Mahomes could cruise to this honor in 2026.
Murray gets a fresh start in Minnesota after playing only five games for Arizona in 2025 while dealing with a foot injury. The fit is appealing, as Kevin O’Connell has a record of getting productive quarterback play, and Murray inherits a roster with Justin Jefferson as its offensive centerpiece. But Murray's health is already a question mark this year, after he suffered a concussion in the opening week of the 2026 season.
The Vikings expect Murray to be able to play still, with enough confidence that they traded JJ McCarthy to the New York Giants this year. How Murray deals with the pressure of reduced depth at his position could play a huge role in whether or not he remains a candidate in this market.
Penix remains an intriguing Comeback Player of the Year candidate because he is recovering from an ACL tear, and he now has a path to play. Atlanta named Tua Tagovailoa the starter heading into this season. But Tagovailoa dealt with immediate injury issues that led to Penix getting back under center in Week 3 of the season.
The Falcons are an exciting offensive team with Penix back on the field, as his ability to attack downfield can lead to chunk passing plays while making things easier for running back Bijan Robinson. As long as Penix stays healthy, the game should slow down for him, and he could earn Comeback Player of the Year honors.
Mahomes is the best pick in this market. The injury comeback angle is significant enough to satisfy the spirit of the award, and his 2025 season created a second comeback angle because Kansas City fell far below its recent standard. If he starts most of the season and returns the Chiefs to the playoffs, voters will have a simple story backed by elite career credentials and a major physical recovery.
