NFC North Futures: Who Will Win the NFC North This Year?
Updated September 30, 2026
Updated September 30, 2026
The NFC North has changed quickly since the season opened. Minnesota has moved from the bottom of many preseason futures boards to the front of the race, while Detroit remains close enough that the market treats the top two as nearly even. Chicago has stayed relevant despite losing its starting quarterback, and Green Bay has slipped after a difficult opening to their season.
Minnesota has done the most to improve its position early this year. The Vikings opened by beating Green Bay, followed by a road win over Chicago, and then handled Tampa Bay. Those division wins matter because they give Minnesota an early tiebreaker advantage.
The defense has also given Kevin O’Connell a dependable base while the offense works through injuries. Kyler Murray returned from a concussion against Tampa Bay, but Justin Jefferson left with a sprained ankle. Minnesota is now the slight favorite in this market and sits very close to Detroit.
Detroit remains right beside Minnesota in the futures markets at Polymarket because its offense gives the Lions a high weekly ceiling. Jared Goff has looked comfortable directing the attack, and Jahmyr Gibbs continues to create problems in several roles.
Detroit answered its loss in Buffalo by beating the Jets, though the defense allowed that game to become much tighter than anticipated late. The encouraging part was the finish, as Detroit created pressure and forced the turnover that ended the Jets’ final chance. The market still views the Lions as a co-favorite or very close second choice, which fits a team with an excellent offense but more uncertainty on defense.
Chicago strengthened its case in this race with a convincing Monday night win over Philadelphia in Week 3. Case Keenum stepped in for Caleb Williams and kept Ben Johnson’s offense under control, while the defense consistently disrupted the Eagles.
That response was important after the loss to Minnesota because it showed Chicago can remain competitive without its starting quarterback for a short period. Williams is expected to miss several weeks with a hamstring injury, however, leaving the Bears with less room for error than the top two teams. Chicago is a clear third choice in the futures market, but a steady stretch from Keenum could keep the division within reach until Williams returns.
Green Bay has lost the most ground in the futures markets. The Packers needed overtime to get past the Jets and then followed that result with a lopsided home loss to Atlanta. Problems along the offensive line have made the situation harder, with right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele moving to season-ending injured reserve and veteran help arriving this week.
Green Bay still has enough talent to recover, but the market has pushed the Packers well behind the other three teams. The early loss to Minnesota also raises the cost of every future division game. Green Bay needs a more efficient offense and better protection quickly if it is going to rejoin the race.
Minnesota is my pick to win the NFC North. The Vikings have already gained useful leverage by beating Green Bay and Chicago, and their defense has given them a reliable way to win even when the offense is uneven. Murray’s return should make the offense more flexible, while Jefferson’s ankle is the main short-term concern. If Jefferson avoids an extended absence, Minnesota has the strongest overall position in the division.
