Updated September 9, 2026
The NFL MVP race doesn't have a dominant favorite just yet. Quarterbacks again control nearly all of the serious attention, but traders have spread their support across several proven stars and emerging candidates. Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen sit at the front of the market, yet the gap between them and the next group is small enough that an early run of elite performances could completely reshape the order.
Polymarket currently treats the MVP race as a wide-open contest. Herbert has moved into the leading group alongside Jackson and Allen, but no player carries anything close to overwhelming market support. Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott and Drake Maye also remain within striking distance. That distribution suggests traders see several quarterbacks with realistic paths to finishing as the league’s most valuable player.
The most interesting item to note is how little separates proven former MVP winners from quarterbacks still searching for their first award. Patrick Mahomes is farther down the board as he returns from a serious knee injury, while Maye and Herbert have gained attention because their situations offer room for statistical growth. Early results should produce significant movement in this market.
Herbert has one of the clearest cases for a major statistical jump. The Chargers hired Mike McDaniel to direct the offense, giving Herbert a coach known for creating space and generating explosive passing opportunities. Herbert has already demonstrated the arm talent and production required for an MVP season. The question has been whether his offense could consistently put him in position to produce award-level numbers.
Jackson enters another season with something no other leading candidate can match: two MVP awards. Even during an up-and-down 2025 campaign, he produced stretches of exceptional passing efficiency while remaining a major rushing threat.
Health is the key issue for Jackson. He appeared in 13 games last season, leaving him without the full-season production usually necessary to capture the award. A healthy 17-game campaign would put him firmly in contention, particularly if Baltimore returns to the top of the AFC under new head coach Jesse Minter.
Allen remains almost impossible to remove from an MVP discussion because Buffalo’s offense continues to run through him. He threw for 3,668 yards and 25 touchdowns during the 2025 regular season while adding his usual value as a runner.
There is some uncertainty in Buffalo after Joe Brady moved from offensive coordinator to head coach, but continuity within the rest of the organization should help. Allen has already shown that he can carry an offense for an entire season, and another strong Buffalo record would give voters an easy argument for putting him near the top of their ballots.
Burrow may have the most straightforward path to the MVP among the players outside the current top three. Cincinnati continues to place a large share of its offensive responsibility on his passing ability, creating the volume needed for huge numbers. His shortened 2025 season hurt his award case, but he returned late in the year and produced several strong performances. A healthy season could quickly move him into the leading group.
Prescott assembled another productive 2025 campaign, finishing with 4,552 passing yards and 30 touchdowns. Those numbers resemble the statistical foundation of an MVP candidate. Dallas simply needs to pair that production with enough wins. If the Cowboys contend for the NFC’s top seed, Prescott could become one of the market’s biggest early risers.
Maye is perhaps the most intriguing contender outside the leading group. His 2025 breakout included 4,394 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, and just 8 interceptions while New England reached the Super Bowl. He also completed 72% of his passes and contributed 450 rushing yards.
That combination gives Maye a stronger starting point than his market position might suggest. Another elite season for a Patriots team expected to contend again would place him directly in the MVP conversation.
My pick is Drake Maye. Herbert deserves his position near the top, and Jackson and Allen have already demonstrated MVP-level ceilings, but Maye offers the best combination of recent production, team success, and room for another step forward.
The Patriots reached the Super Bowl with Maye delivering elite efficiency in just his second NFL season. If he maintains anything close to that level while New England remains near the top of the AFC, his statistical case could surpass several more established names.
