NFL MVP Futures: Who Will Win NFL MVP This Season?
Updated September 30, 2026
Updated September 30, 2026
The NFL MVP race doesn't have a dominant favorite just yet. Quarterbacks again control nearly all of the serious attention, but traders have spread their support across several proven stars and emerging candidates. Brock Purdy, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen sit at the front of the market, yet the gap between them and the next group is small enough that an early run of elite performances could completely reshape the order of things.
Polymarket currently treats the MVP race as a wide-open contest. Quarterbacks who are off to strong starts are rising above the field in this market, but nobody has a price that would suggest that they are a clear leader in the race either. Quarterbacks are leading the pack, though, with no players from other positions expected to contend at this point in the year.
The most interesting item to note is how little separates proven former MVP winners from quarterbacks still searching for their first award. Patrick Mahomes is farther down the board as he returns from a serious knee injury, while Brock Purdy and Joe Burrow have gained attention because of how well their teams have played early. Early results should produce significant movement in this market.
Allen remains almost impossible to remove from an MVP discussion because Buffalo’s offense continues to run through him. He threw for 3,668 yards and 25 touchdowns during the 2025 regular season while adding his usual value as a runner.
The Bills' signal-caller is off to a great start to this year as well, as the Bills look every bit like a Super Bowl contender. Allen's turnover issues popped up in Buffalo's Week 3 home win over the Los Angeles Chargers. But if the Bills keep winning and scoring points in bunches, Allen could win a second MVP.
Brock Purdy is not a quarterback that is as exciting as players like Allen or Jackson. But he has been rock solid for the 49ers so far this season and his steady play has helped the Niners impress early in a highly competitive NFC West. Purdy has benefited greatly from his offensive weapons being mostly healthy early in the year, including George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey.
Jackson is playing another season with something no other leading candidate can match: two MVP awards. Even during an up-and-down 2025 campaign, he produced stretches of exceptional passing efficiency while remaining a major rushing threat.
Health is the key issue for Jackson. He appeared in 13 games last season, leaving him without the full-season production usually necessary to capture the award. A healthy 17-game campaign would put him firmly in contention, particularly if Baltimore returns to the top of the AFC under new head coach Jesse Minter. So far, Jackson has stayed healthy, which is great news for the Ravens.
Burrow may have the most straightforward path to the MVP among the players outside the current top three. Cincinnati continues to place a large share of its offensive responsibility on his passing ability, creating the volume needed for huge numbers. His shortened 2025 season hurt his award case, but he returned late in the year and produced several strong performances. A healthy season could quickly move him into the leading group, and his connection with Ja'Marr Chase has looked lethal early in 2026.
There were questions going into this season about whether or not Patrick Mahomes would look like the Mahomes we saw in previous years. Mahomes missed part of last season after suffering a season-ending injury, and his speedy recovery has allowed him to play from the start of this year. He has looked excellent and the Chiefs are off to a nice start as a team, which is a recipe for MVP contention.
Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence has not been known for consistent quarterback play in recent years. But he has done a nice job of protecting the football this season, while the Jaguars have looked like a team that could make the playoffs again this year. It would be hard to see Lawrence leapfrogging the quarterbacks listed above, but it isn't impossible if the Jaguars keep winning.
My pick in the NFL MVP market is Josh Allen. Buffalo got off to an explosive start to their season offensively, including a blowout win over a Lions team that is expected to contend for the NFC championship. As long as Allen stays healthy and his turnover problems don't return on a long-term basis, he remains a decent choice in this market despite being the favorite.
