NFC South Futures: Who Will Win the NFC South This Year?
Updated September 30, 2026
Updated September 30, 2026
The NFC South is brimming with uncertainty this season. Carolina won the division last year at 8-9 after finishing in a three-team tie with Tampa Bay and Atlanta, and no club has established itself as a clear-cut favorite this year either. Tampa Bay entered as NFC South favorites, but have struggled out of the gate, while a new favorite has taken over in the division.
New Orleans currently sits at the top of the futures market, even after a frustrating home loss to Las Vegas. They proved they can respond in a difficult spot with an impressive road win over Baltimore, but their game against Vegas slipped away after a series of late turnovers erased what had been a competitive performance.
Tyler Shough gives New Orleans a reason for optimism. The offense has looked capable of creating enough downfield opportunities to keep opponents honest, and the Saints have generally appeared more functional than they did during the roughest stretches of last season. Still, there is some risk behind their favorite status. Travis Etienne is dealing with a hamstring injury, and the Saints cannot afford repeated late-game mistakes in a division that may stay close deep into the year.
Carolina is the second choice in the market and has already delivered one of the most meaningful divisional results by beating Atlanta convincingly. That performance showed why the Panthers entered the season with a realistic chance to defend their NFC South crown. Their offense can control stretches of games, and the overall group under Dave Canales looks more settled in than it did earlier in his tenure.
The concern is health. Carolina lost a close game in Cleveland and came out of it with several important injuries. The offensive line has taken a hit, while Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson have also been dealing with issues in the cornerback group. Those absences could become especially costly against stronger passing attacks. Carolina still belongs near the top of this market, but its margin for error may be getting smaller.
Atlanta is currently the third choice, but its outlook changed considerably after Michael Penix Jr. returned to the starting lineup. The Falcons looked disjointed during their opening games with Cooper Rush at quarterback, then produced their best performance of the season in a road win over Green Bay. Penix brought more life to the passing game, and Atlanta was able to lean into a physical offensive approach built around Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson Jr.
There are still legitimate concerns. Atlanta already lost its first meeting with Carolina, and A.J. Terrell Jr. is sidelined, leaving the defense without one of its most important players. Even so, the Green Bay result suggested the Falcons may be a different team with Penix running the offense. Their upcoming matchup with New Orleans gives them an immediate chance to change the shape of the division race again.
Tampa Bay has fallen to the longest position in the futures market at Polymarket after a difficult opening stretch became even more complicated. The Buccaneers have struggled to generate consistent offense, and the situation became much more serious when Baker Mayfield injured his throwing hand against Minnesota.
Mayfield is expected to miss multiple games, leaving rookie Jalon Daniels in line to start. Tampa Bay is also dealing with an extended absence for Jalen McMillan, further reducing the options in a passing game that already needed improvement. The Buccaneers have enough veteran talent to remain competitive, but they now need to survive a difficult portion of the schedule without their starting quarterback. Until Mayfield returns and the offense stabilizes, it is difficult to place Tampa Bay on the same level as the other three teams.
Atlanta is my prediction to win the NFC South. The Falcons are not the current market favorite, but the quarterback change is significant enough to reconsider what their opening games tell us about the team. Penix gives Atlanta a higher offensive ceiling, and the win in Green Bay offered the clearest evidence yet that Kevin Stefanski’s offense can work with the personnel available.
New Orleans deserves its place near the top of the market, while Carolina has already shown it can beat Atlanta head-to-head. Even so, the Falcons appear to have the most room for improvement from this point forward. If Penix stays healthy and the offense continues to look as comfortable as it did in Green Bay, Atlanta has a strong path to finishing first in a division where no team has created much separation.
