Updated September 9, 2026
The AFC East is a division with a familiar name at the top of the futures market, but the gap between first and second in the market is a slim one. Buffalo remains the favorite at Polymarket, while defending division champion New England sits close enough to make this a two-team race. New York and Miami will try to shock the world and leapfrog both favorites. Here, we break down the AFC East futures market and make our prediction.
Buffalo is in its first season with Joe Brady as head coach after finishing 12-5 last year and reaching the divisional round. The Bills eventually fell 33-30 to Denver, ending another season in which Josh Allen kept them near the top of the AFC. Buffalo also finished 2025 with the league's leading rushing attack in yards, rushing yards per game, and rushing touchdowns. Allen remains the foundation, but the supporting cast has changed enough to make this version of Buffalo worth watching closely.
The biggest offensive addition is DJ Moore, who joins Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir and Joshua Palmer in a deeper receiving group. James Cook III remains in the backfield after Buffalo leaned heavily on its ground game last season. The Bills also went 3-0 in the preseason, although those results should carry little weight in a division futures decision.
Polymarket has Buffalo in front, but the market is hardly treating the Bills as an overwhelming favorite. The current pricing suggests traders respect Buffalo's high floor while recognizing that New England has already shown it can finish above the Bills.
New England has earned its place near Buffalo in this market. The Patriots went 14-3 last season, won the AFC East, and reached the Super Bowl before losing 29-13 to Seattle. Drake Maye developed into the centerpiece of the franchise during that run, and his presence gives New England something every serious division contender needs: a quarterback capable of deciding games rather than simply managing them.
The Patriots strengthened Maye's receiving group by adding A.J. Brown, giving the offense a playmaker who can change how defenses approach New England. Mike Vrabel now enters another season with a roster carrying far different expectations than the team that began 2025. New England is no longer a surprise contender. It will be evaluated as one of the AFC's leading teams from the opening week.
The Jets are coming off a 3-14 season in which they went 0-6 inside the AFC East, so their position in the market is understandable. Aaron Glenn enters his second year as head coach, but the offense has been reshaped. Frank Reich is now the offensive coordinator, and Geno Smith has returned to New York more than a decade after beginning his NFL career with the franchise. Rookie Cade Klubnik will serve as his backup.
Smith gives the Jets more veteran stability at quarterback, while experienced additions such as Minkah Fitzpatrick, Demario Davis, and Harrison Phillips add leadership elsewhere on the roster. There is enough talent here for New York to improve significantly from last year's three wins. The problem for futures traders is that improvement and a division championship are very different targets. To move from the bottom of the AFC East to first, the Jets would need to close an enormous gap against two teams that combined for 26 regular-season wins in 2025.
Miami enters 2026 in the middle of the largest rebuild in the division. The Dolphins finished 7-10 last season and have since turned the team over to new head coach Jeff Hafley. Bobby Slowik runs the offense, while Sean Duggan coordinates the defense. Most significantly, Malik Willis is Miami's starting quarterback after arriving from Green Bay.
Willis has intriguing physical tools, and De'Von Achane remains a dangerous piece in the backfield, but Miami's offense looks very different from the group associated with the franchise in recent seasons. As a result, the market gives Miami little chance of winning the AFC East, and that assessment is difficult to dispute. Miami may outperform the extremely low expectations attached to its division chances, but asking this roster to finish above both Buffalo and New England is a much larger leap.
Buffalo is our pick to win the AFC East. New England won the division last year and has added A.J. Brown to an offense led by Maye. Even so, Buffalo has the combination of quarterback talent, offensive depth, and recent consistency that makes it easier to trust across a full season.
The market appears to have the order right. Buffalo should be favored, New England should be close behind, and there should be a significant gap before New York and Miami.
