AFC East Futures: Who Will Win the AFC East This Year?
Updated September 29, 2026
Updated September 29, 2026
The AFC East is a division with a familiar name at the top of the futures market, and the gap between first and second in the market is growing. Buffalo remains the favorite at Polymarket, while defending division champion New England has yet to live up to expectations. New York and Miami will try to shock the world and leapfrog both favorites. Here, we break down the AFC East futures market and make our prediction.
Buffalo has given futures traders several reasons to trust its start. The Bills opened with a road win, followed it with another productive offensive performance at home, then found a very different route in their latest victory over the Chargers. The offense repeatedly put the team in difficult spots, yet the defense kept the game close long enough for Buffalo to recover late. The Bills no longer look dependent on one style of game as they look to win games.
There are still reasons for restraint. The Bills' performance against the Chargers featured too many mistakes with the football, and a better opponent may punish those errors more severely. Still, Buffalo has shown it can win through Josh Allen and the offense or lean on its defense when the passing game becomes erratic. The futures market at Polymarket now has the Bills in a clearly stronger position than every other AFC East team.
New England entered the season with legitimate expectations after winning the division and reaching the Super Bowl last year, but the opening weeks have been disappointing for the Pats. A close loss in Seattle was followed by a strong home response against Pittsburgh, yet their Week 3 trip to Jacksonville was a major setback. The offense struggled to sustain productive drives, and Drake Maye acknowledged afterward that the unit has not played at an acceptable level.
The Patriots remain the closest team to Buffalo in the market because their roster still carries more credibility than the Jets or Dolphins. The concern is that the gap has widened quickly. New England now heads into a road meeting with Buffalo needing a much sharper offensive performance. A win there would change the division picture immediately. Another poor showing would make the Bills increasingly difficult to chase down.
The Jets have been more competitive than their futures position might suggest. They opened with a convincing road victory, then let a late lead disappear in an overtime loss to Green Bay. Their Week 3 game in Detroit followed a similar theme. New York rallied from a difficult position and gave itself a chance late before falling short.
Geno Smith has helped the offense create enough plays to keep games within reach, while Garrett Wilson remains the passing attack's most important piece. The problem is that close losses still leave the Jets with limited room in a division where Buffalo has started so well. Injuries to Wilson and Breece Hall in Detroit add uncertainty. New York sits well behind the top two in the market and needs better results quickly to become a serious factor.
Miami has had the roughest opening stretch in the division. Losses to Las Vegas and San Francisco put the Dolphins under immediate pressure, and the home opener against Kansas City produced another defeat. There were encouraging signs in that latest game. Miami stayed competitive deep into the contest, the defense settled after a difficult opening, and the offense created more promising opportunities than it had the week before.
That improvement has not changed the futures picture much. Miami remains the longest option in the AFC East market. De'Von Achane leaving the Kansas City game with an injury is another issue to watch because the offense relies heavily on his versatility. The Dolphins need wins before their market position can meaningfully improve.
Buffalo is our pick to win the AFC East. New England won the division last year and has added A.J. Brown to an offense led by Maye. Even so, Buffalo has the combination of quarterback talent, offensive depth, and recent consistency that makes it easier to trust across a full season.
The market appears to have the order right. Buffalo should be favored, New England should be behind them, and there should be a significant gap before New York and Miami.
