Updated September 9, 2026
The 2026 NFL Coach of the Year race features plenty of coaches in new jobs this year. A record-tying 10 teams changed head coaches during the offseason, creating several obvious turnaround angles before a regular-season snap has even been played. Here, we break down the NFL Coach of the Year futures markets and make our prediction to win this individual honor.
Polymarket currently has Jesse Minter at the front of the Coach of the Year market, followed by John Harbaugh and Joe Brady. Ben Johnson, Kevin Stefanski, and Kellen Moore sit close enough behind that there is a long list of legitimate contenders at this stage.
There is another factor worth keeping in mind: this is still a lightly traded Polymarket market. That makes the early order useful as a snapshot of expectations, but less convincing than a mature futures market with heavier participation from traders. The current leaderboard should change considerably once teams start to establish themselves in the playoff race.
Minter inherits perhaps the strongest situation of any first-year coach. Baltimore already has Lamar Jackson, a talented defense, and a roster built to contend for the AFC title. Minter is first among the 10 new head coaches in expected wins, pointing to his defensive background and familiarity with the organization. But taking an excellent roster to 11 or 12 wins might not look as impressive to voters as transforming a losing team into a playoff club.
Harbaugh offers almost the ideal Coach of the Year foundation. The Giants went 4-13 last season and hired a coach with extensive experience turning Baltimore into a consistent winner. New York has also built its new staff around developing quarterback Jaxson Dart. If Harbaugh can push the Giants anywhere near playoff contention, the improvement from 2025 will be impossible to ignore.
Joe Brady takes over a team that reached the playoffs in eight of the previous nine seasons, so simply remaining an AFC contender probably will not earn him the award. His route to winning Coach of the Year requires Buffalo to look clearly better after the coaching change, perhaps by winning the conference’s top seed or producing one of the league’s best records.
Johnson already has evidence that his program works. Chicago finished 11-6 in 2025, and his second season brings another chance for Caleb Williams and the offense to progress. The problem is that last year’s success raises the bar for Johnson and his team. Johnson probably needs Chicago near the top of the NFC standings to separate himself.
Stefanski is especially interesting because he has already won this award twice. Atlanta finished 8-9 last season and now has Tua Tagovailoa starting while Michael Penix Jr. continues his recovery from a knee injury. If Stefanski gets Atlanta to double-digit wins despite uncertainty at quarterback, voters would have a reason to reward him again.
Moore has the kind of low-expectation team that can produce a surprise Coach of the Year candidate. New Orleans went 6-11 last season, leaving plenty of room for visible improvement. The issue is the team's ceiling. Moore needs New Orleans to outperform their season outlook significantly and become a genuine NFC South contender for Moore to win this award for himself.
John Harbaugh is my prediction to win Coach of the Year. Minter has the better roster, and Brady has a better quarterback, but Harbaugh has the strongest combination of coaching credibility and room for dramatic improvement.
The Giants do not need to become a Super Bowl favorite for Harbaugh to build a winning case. Moving from 4-13 to 9 or 10 victories while developing Dart would create exactly the type of season voters tend to remember.
