NFL Coach of the Year Futures: Who Will Win Coach of the Year?
Updated September 30, 2026
Updated September 30, 2026
The 2026 NFL Coach of the Year race features plenty of coaches in new jobs this year. A record-tying 10 teams changed head coaches during the offseason, creating several obvious turnaround angles before a regular-season snap has even been played.
Here, we break down the NFL Coach of the Year futures markets and make our prediction to win the award.
Polymarket currently has Ben Johnson at the front of the Coach of the Year market, followed by Kellen Moore and Jesse Minter. There is a large pack of coaches behind that trio that have more attractive prices to win the award, though it will be tough for those coaches to pull ahead of Johnson, Moore, and Minter, who have their teams off to impressive starts.
Johnson already has evidence that his program works. Chicago finished 11-6 in 2025, and his second season brings another chance for Caleb Williams and the offense to progress. Johnson deserves a ton of credit for his team winning football games despite Williams' early injury issues, with Case Keenum getting a win over a very good Philadelphia Eagles team in his place. That has helped make Johnson an early favorite.
Moore has the kind of low-expectation team that can produce a surprise Coach of the Year candidate. New Orleans went 6-11 last season, leaving plenty of room for visible improvement. And with the Saints looking like contenders in the NFC South all of a sudden, Moore's candidacy for this award has seen a nice bump in recent weeks.
Minter inherits perhaps the strongest situation of any first-year coach. Baltimore already has Lamar Jackson, a talented defense, and a roster built to contend for the AFC title. Minter entered this season first among the 10 new head coaches in expected wins, pointing to his defensive background and familiarity with the organization. Baltimore is off to a good start under Minter, which will keep him in this race for now.
Harbaugh offers almost the ideal Coach of the Year foundation. The Giants went 4-13 last season and hired a coach with extensive experience turning Baltimore into a consistent winner.
New York also built its new staff around developing quarterback Jaxson Dart, and Dart's season-ending injury has made Harbaugh an even more interesting contender in a way. If Harbaugh can push the Giants anywhere near playoff contention without their starting quarterback, the improvement from 2025 will be impossible to ignore.
Joe Brady took over a team that reached the playoffs in eight of the previous nine seasons, so simply remaining an AFC contender probably will not earn him the award. His route to winning Coach of the Year requires Buffalo to look clearly better after the coaching change, perhaps by winning the conference’s top seed or producing one of the league’s best records. Buffalo looks like a title contender early in 2026, which has been good for Brady's Coach of the Year case.
John Harbaugh is my prediction to win Coach of the Year.
Minter has the better roster, and Brady has a better quarterback, but Harbaugh has the strongest combination of coaching credibility and room for dramatic improvement.
The Giants do not need to become a Super Bowl favorite for Harbaugh to build a winning case. Moving from 4-13 to 9 or 10 victories without Dart would create exactly the type of season voters tend to remember.
