Mountain West Basketball Championship Predictions: Odds, Favorites & Contenders
Updated November 11, 2026
Updated November 11, 2026
The 2026–27 Mountain West basketball championship race features a restructured conference and several programs capable of competing for the title. With established contenders New Mexico, Grand Canyon, Nevada, and UNLV leading the conversation, the conference tournament promises a competitive battle for an automatic NCAA Tournament berth.
The Lopes feature an experienced roster led by Dylan Darling, Jaden Henley, and Efe Demirel.
The Lobos have preseason MWC Player of the Year Jake Hall and standout Uriah Tenette returning,
The Wolf Pack return Elijah Price and Vaughn Weems, providing valuable experience.
The Runnin' Rebels have the talent to make a championship run under Josh Pastner.
The Cowboys return an experienced core and could emerge as a dangerous challenger.
The Lopes feature an experienced roster led by Dylan Darling, Jaden Henley, and Efe Demirel.
The Lobos have preseason MWC Player of the Year Jake Hall and standout Uriah Tenette returning,
The Wolf Pack return Elijah Price and Vaughn Weems, providing valuable experience.
The Runnin' Rebels have the talent to make a championship run under Josh Pastner.
The Cowboys return an experienced core and could emerge as a dangerous challenger.
Prediction: Grand Canyon to win the 2027 Mountain West Men's Basketball Championship.
The Lopes enter the season with one of the conference's most complete rosters and a defensive identity that should translate well to tournament competition. Grand Canyon finished 23rd nationally in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency rankings during the 2025–26 season, demonstrating its ability to limit opponents after accounting for competition quality.
New Mexico represents the biggest obstacle to a Grand Canyon championship according to the college basketball odds for this season. The Lobos finished 46th nationally in KenPom's overall adjusted efficiency rankings in 2025–26, including 63rd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 37th defensively. Returning guards Jake Hall and Uriah Tenette give New Mexico a proven foundation, but Grand Canyon's combination of defensive reliability, frontcourt size, and experienced perimeter contributors provides a compelling advantage in a single-elimination setting.
Grand Canyon's potential championship path is particularly appealing because of its roster versatility. Darling brings experience directing the offense, while Henley and Makaih Williams provide additional perimeter options and Demirel supplies an interior presence. Nevada and UNLV possess enough talent to challenge either favorite, but Grand Canyon is our choice to emerge from Las Vegas with the Mountain West tournament championship and the conference's automatic NCAA Tournament berth.
Conference Realignment
The departures of several established programs and the additions of Hawai'i, UC Davis, and UTEP have substantially changed the Mountain West's competitive landscape.
First Round Byes
The top six regular-season finishers advance directly to the quarterfinals, while seeds seven through 10 must win an additional game.
Home-Court Advantage?
UNLV plays its home games at the Thomas & Mack Center, potentially providing greater familiarity with the championship venue than its conference rivals.
Balanced Schedules
Each team plays the other nine members once at home and once on the road, making head-to-head performance particularly useful when evaluating championship contenders and potential tournament seeding.
