Premier League Power Rankings: Advanced Metrics and Prediction Market Analysis
Updated October 28, 2026
Updated October 28, 2026
Arsenal remain No. 1 in our Premier League power rankings, but the biggest changes sit below the leading pair. Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest and Fulham move higher as their underlying performances earn greater weight, while several teams enjoying stronger league positions fall back.
Manchester City still lead the table on goal difference after eight matches, level with Arsenal on 21 points. Their first league defeat, at Aston Villa, has tightened the race. Brighton remain third here despite losing at Liverpool, with their attacking production keeping them ahead of the chasing pack.
The prediction-market picture also needs a fresh assessment. City’s financial-rules proceedings introduce a separate consideration for season-long contracts, while Chelsea’s qualification pricing demands more than their current chance balance supports.
These rankings focus on the quality and balance of performances. League position, recent results and market pricing provide context, with the gaps between results and chance creation helping identify teams worth closer examination.
League position: 2nd
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
14.93 | 8.12 | +6.81 | 9.41 |
HOLD- Premier League title market
Arsenal keep first place after following the Brighton defeat with three consecutive league wins. Saturday’s 2–0 victory over Everton leaves them level with Manchester City on points, with their defensive performance providing the strongest argument for keeping the champions on top.
With their defensive strength, Arsenal can win without needing an unusually open game or a finishing surge. Our reading of the season totals puts them marginally ahead of City for control at both ends.
Polymarket’s displayed title Yes buy price sits at 67¢. Hold existing title exposure, but the improved results have already made a new entry considerably more expensive than in September. Liverpool away is the next league test.
League position: 1st
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
18.92 | 9.95 | +8.97 | 8.71 |
HOLD - Premier League title market
City’s seven-game winning start ended with a 2–1 defeat at Aston Villa. One loss does little to change our assessment of their playing strength, and they remain second here, narrowly behind Arsenal.
Their season-market outlook requires a separate assessment. The Premier League announced the independent Commission’s financial-rules findings on September 29 and confirmed City’s appeal on October 2. Sanctions were to be addressed separately under the announced process. City deny wrongdoing and contest the findings.
The title Yes buy price displayed at 14¢. That gap to Arsenal cannot sensibly be judged using playing statistics alone. Hold off on adding title exposure without accounting for the disciplinary process and the contract’s settlement rules.
League position: 3rd
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
18.10 | 11.41 | +6.69 | 6.58 |
HOLD - UCL Qualification
Brighton stay third despite losing 2–0 at Liverpool. They had won their previous four league games, including a 5–0 victory over Crystal Palace, so a single defeat offers little reason to dismantle the broader assessment.
Our concern is how much of the spectacular goal difference depends on finishing and goals prevented. The attacking process supports a European challenge, but extrapolating the biggest scorelines would overstate the case.
The Champions League qualification Yes buy price displayed at 57¢. September’s outsider argument has become a much more demanding entry. Hold the qualification outlook and be selective about adding at that level.
League position: 4th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
11.83 | 10.7 | +1.13 | 8.62 |
HOLD - Top-four market
Liverpool move into fourth after back-to-back league wins at Brentford and at home to Brighton. Those results have strengthened their position in the European race and deserve greater weight in this update, even with a gap still separating their overall performance profile from Arsenal and Manchester City.
The Brighton result strengthened their European position, but they still lost the xG battle with the Seagulls. They need to sustain their recent run of results to be considered in the same tier as Arsenal and City.
At a displayed 77¢ Yes buy price for Champions League qualification, much of the positive case is already reflected in the market. Hold, with the upcoming home game against Arsenal offering a useful test of their progress.
League position: 6th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
14.36 | 12.82 | +1.54 | 7.98 |
HOLD UCL Qualification
Brentford take fifth place, with their attacking production keeping them in the top five despite collecting only two points from their last three league games. The 1–1 draw at Hull followed a home defeat to Liverpool and a draw at Aston Villa.
There is still plenty to like in their attacking production. The concern is that their chance prevention leaves too little separation to sustain the more aggressive European argument made after five matches.
The Champions League qualification Yes buy price displayed at 30¢. Hold the broader assessment, with Forest at home next. Brentford remain competitive, but we would want stronger defensive evidence before upgrading the season-market signal.
League position: 13th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
16.72 | 9.31 | +7.41 | 9.74 |
BUY- MATCH MARKETS
Bournemouth rise three places to sixth after beating Sunderland 2–0 and Manchester United 3–0. Their recent results now offer stronger support for the encouraging chance balance, although we keep Liverpool and Brentford ahead of them in this update.
The defensive side of their chance balance is especially encouraging. It gives the Cherries a stronger foundation than a ranking based only on their recent goals would suggest.
Keep Bournemouth on the buy watchlist for individual matches, starting with Leeds at home. Their improvement is becoming more visible, so compare the available pricing with a match-specific assessment before entering.
League position: 18th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
15.75 | 9.03 | +6.72 | 12.18 |
SELL: Relegation Yes
Forest move sharply higher even though they remain in the relegation zone. Friday’s 1–1 draw at Ipswich brought only their sixth point, but their underlying numbers point to a team significantly better than its current league position would suggest.
Their finishing remains a concern, particularly at home, where they have yet to score in four league matches. That is a real weakness to monitor alongside the encouraging chance creation.
The displayed relegation Yes buy price was 16¢. Our lean is against that outcome, while an existing Yes holder needs the executable sell quote before acting. Brentford away and City at home make an immediate recovery far from straightforward.
League position: 9th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
9.56 | 15.34 | -5.78 | 14.37 |
Villa climb to eighth after consecutive league wins over Newcastle and Manchester City. Beating those opponents earns a significant upgrade, even though their season-long expected-goals figures remain below the standard we would want from a sustained European challenger.
Their victory over City came despite creating the smaller expected-goals total. That limits how much we can read into the performance, but the quality of the opposition and the points collected deserve more weight than they received in the previous draft.
I'm still not interested in Villa in UCL markets. The displayed 28¢ Yes buy price still requires a stronger long-term case before we would consider a new position. Fulham at home is the next opportunity to show that the recovery can continue.
League position: 15th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
12.59 | 12.22 | +0.37 | 10.73 |
HOLD – Relegation market
Fulham’s consecutive wins over Hull and Coventry have eased their relegation concerns. Their 12.59 xG and 12.22 xGA suggest a competitive side whose performances have been better than their league position. I would avoid buying Fulham to be relegated at 19¢. Villa away will test whether the defensive improvement behind those two clean sheets can hold against stronger opposition.
League position: 5th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
12.38 | 13.52 | -1.36 | 14.01 |
SELL - Champions League qualification market
Chelsea remain tenth after losing 2–0 at home to Tottenham. Fifth in the league looks more persuasive than their near-even chance balance, and the recent 5–1 win over Bournemouth should not obscure that distinction.
Their attack has produced some emphatic results. Our assessment is that sustaining a Champions League pace will require more reliable superiority in the chances created and conceded.
The Champions League qualification Yes buy price displayed at 77¢. That is a demanding entry given the current performance profile, leaving us with a sell lean on qualification Yes. Manchester United at home is the next league fixture.
League position: 7th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
10.9 | 10.84 | +0.06 | 8.66 |
HOLD - Match markets
Leeds drop to 11th after following defeat at Arsenal with draws against Manchester United and Sunderland. Their points total still describes a competitive start, while the performance balance looks closer to the middle of the division.
We would be careful about treating their low goals-conceded total as a settled defensive standard. There is less margin in the chances allowed than the clean sheets might imply.
Hold the match-market outlook and judge each fixture separately. Bournemouth away is a useful comparison between a side still sitting high in the table and one rising quickly in these rankings.
League position: 14th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
9.81 | 11.66 | -1.85 | 7.57 |
SELL – Top-six market
Tottenham rise to 12th after taking seven points from three games. Allowing Chelsea just 0.46 xGA was encouraging, but Spurs scored five goals from only 1.95 xG across their wins over Chelsea and Coventry.
The results justify moving them higher, but their attack still needs to improve. I would avoid Champions League qualification at 21.4¢.
League position: 16th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
13.38 | 13.22 | +0.16 | 11.03 |
SELL - Top-six/ Champions League qualification market
United drop to 13th amid eight winless games in all competitions, mounting pressure on Michael Carrick and the fallout from benching Bruno Fernandes after his public criticism of the tactics.
The data supports the concern: United have created just 2.79 xG while conceding 6.01 xGA across their last three league matches. Their performances are deteriorating alongside the results. With uncertainty over the manager and Chelsea away next, I would avoid Champions League qualification at 22¢.
League position: 20th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
12.06 | 15.94 | -3.88 | 10.77 |
BUY | Relegation at 27¢
Sunderland’s season-long finishing shortfall hides a more worrying recent decline: just 1.99 xG created and 7.09 xGA conceded across their last three league games. Brobbey’s return helps, but the attack still needs to recover.
I would buy relegation Yes at 27¢, with Coventry away offering an immediate test against a direct survival rival.
League position: 11th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
12.44 | 12.62 | -0.18 | 15.22 |
HOLD | Top-half finish
Everton’s 12.44 xG and 12.62 xGA suggest a mid-table side. Scoring eight goals leaves room for attacking improvement, but conceding only nine has also flattered their defending. Those effects could offset each other.
I would retain an existing top-half position, but their current performances offer little reason to increase it.
League position: 10th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
9.33 | 13.96 | -3.63 | 15.79 |
BUY | Relegation
Hull’s tenth-place start looks vulnerable. They have conceded eight goals from 13.96 xGA while generating just 9.33 xG themselves. If their defensive results move closer to the chances allowed, the attack offers limited protection.
I would back relegation: their points tally is much stronger than the performances supporting it.
League position: 8th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
9.98 | 15.12 | -5.14 | 9.02 |
BUY | Newcastle relegation at 11.8¢
Newcastle’s eighth-place position flatters their performances. They have collected 11 points against 7.45 expected points, with 9.98 xG created and 15.12 xGA conceded. That leaves them vulnerable if their results move closer to the chances they allow.
I would buy relegation Yes at 11.8¢ as a small, speculative position. Their points cushion helps, but the underlying numbers suggest more danger than their league position implies.
League position: 12th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
10.61 | 18.85 | -8.24 | 12.30 |
BUY | Relegation at 36¢
Ipswich’s 12th-place league position hides the division’s highest xGA: 18.85 from eight matches. Their last three games produced just 3.49 xG against 8.54 xGA, so the defensive problems are getting worse.
I would buy relegation Yes at 36¢. Ten points provide a cushion, but allowing chances at this rate makes their current position difficult to sustain.
League position: 19th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
8.19 | 12.35 | -4.16 | 19.47 |
HOLD | Relegation at 58¢
Coventry’s league-low 8.19 xG makes their attack a major survival concern. However, their last three matches produced a closer balance of 3.21 xG against 3.76 xGA, offering some evidence of improvement.
I would retain existing relegation exposure but avoid buying at 58¢. Their scoring problems support the relegation case, but the recent improvement weakens the argument for adding at that price.
League position: 17th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
12.49 | 17.33 | -4.84 | 15.12 |
BUY | Relegation at 28¢
Palace have conceded 19 goals from 17.33 xGA, the division’s second-highest total. Their 12.49 xG offers hope of better scoring returns, but they are allowing too many chances to collect points consistently.
I would buy relegation Yes at 28¢. Survival depends on a substantial defensive improvement, and the season-long numbers provide little evidence of one.
