Premier League Power Rankings: Advanced Metrics and Prediction Market Analysis
Updated September 22, 2026
Updated September 22, 2026
Five games into the Premier League season, Manchester City have 15 points from 15, but they are not No. 1 in our first Premier League power rankings. This may seem like an attempt to be contrarian, but this is far from the case. Power rankings should measure how well teams are actually playing, not simply reproduce the league table.
Expected goals (xG), expected goals against (xGA), shot quality and territorial dominance all matter more over time than whether a deflection went in or a goalkeeper saved a one-on-one. With only five games played, we also need to distinguish sustainable performance from finishing streaks and strange game states.
That leaves Arsenal narrowly on top despite their 3-0 defeat at Brighton, while City's extraordinary 5-3 win over Sunderland actually created more questions than answers.
Prediction-market prices provide another useful reference point. Arsenal and City currently account for roughly 87% of Polymarket's Premier League title probability between them, while the race beneath them remains considerably more open.
League position: 2nd
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
9.41 | 5.45 | +3.96 | 10.29 |
HOLD- Premier League title market
Arsenal's 3-0 defeat at Brighton exposed difficulties against an aggressive press, but their +3.96 xGD and 9.81 expected points still support the underlying profile that took them to the title last season.
Polymarket currently prices the champions at 48¢ to retain their title. Given the questions raised by the Brighton defeat, this is the time to hold the champions rather than overreacting by selling.
League position: 1st
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
11.04 | 7.18 | +3.86 | 8.54 |
HOLD - Premier League title market
City are perfect through five, but 15 points from 9.59 xPTS is the clearest overperformance in the league. The 13 goals are backed by strong attacking numbers; the 7.18 xGA is less convincing.
That matters after conceding three to Sunderland despite winning 5-3. City are excellent, but their 38¢-range title price increasingly reflects the perfect record. Hold rather than chase five wins from five.
League position: 3rd
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
12.89 | 8.63 | +4.26 | 5.50 |
BUY - Top-four market
Brighton lead the league in both xG and xGD. The standout number is 5.50 PPDA, comfortably the most aggressive pressing profile in the division.
The defensive side is less convincing, but 12.89 xG in five games gives Brighton a repeatable route to points even when they concede chances. The 16 actual goals may cool, yet the chance creation should not.
Buy top-four exposure while the market still treats Brighton primarily as an outsider rather than an elite attacking side.
League position: 4th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
10.51 | 7.50 | +3.01 | 9.04 |
BUY - Top-six market
Brentford's unbeaten start is not a fluke. They have generated more xG than Arsenal and their 8.43 xPTS sits close to the nine points actually collected.
The bigger story is sustainability. Brentford are pressing aggressively, creating chances and not relying on freak finishing numbers to stay fourth.
Buy the top-six angle before the market fully accepts that Brentford's start is being driven by process rather than variance.
League position: 6th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
8.24 | 6.94 | +1.30 | 7.43 |
HOLD - Top-four market
Liverpool are unbeaten, but their underlying dominance remains modest. A 7.43 PPDA shows Iraola has installed the aggressive press, yet the reward has been only a +1.30 xGD.
That is the concern. Liverpool are working hard without consistently turning pressure into high-quality separation.
Hold top-four exposure. The talent level remains strong enough, but the numbers do not yet justify buying aggressively after improved results.
League position: 5th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
7.23 | 6.41 | +0.82 | 9.64 |
HOLD - Match markets
Leeds are still unbeaten, but the numbers place them closer to a solid mid-table side than the fifth-best team in England. Nine actual points versus 7.25 xPTS is mild overperformance rather than a major warning.
Their defensive process has been particularly steady, with only 6.41 xGA across five games.
Hold the broad outlook and target Leeds selectively in individual match markets rather than buying into the league position.
League position: 12th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
10.59 | 7.22 | +3.37 | 11.02 |
BUY - Top-six/ Champions League qualification market
United are one of the clearest results-versus-process discrepancies in the league. Five points looks poor; 10.59 xG, +3.37 xGD and 8.35 xPTS do not.
Their problem has been converting good performances into results rather than failing to create chances.
That distinction matters for traders. Buy weakness in the top-six market if the five-point start has pushed United's price down materially. United at 44 cents offer significantly better value than Chelsea at 68 cents to qualify for the Champions League, for example.
League position: 7th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
8.35 | 7.20 | +1.15 | 15.22 |
HOLD - Top-half market
Everton's nine points are broadly supported by a positive xGD, but three goals conceded from 7.20 xGA will be difficult to sustain. The 15.22 PPDA also shows Everton are comfortable defending without pressing high, which makes goalkeeper performance and box defending particularly important.
Hold rather than buy the unbeaten start. Everton look competent, but the defensive results have been better than the chances allowed.
League position: 17th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
8.10 | 6.99 | +1.11 | 9.86 |
BUY - Match markets
Bournemouth may be the best buy-low team in these rankings.
They are winless despite a positive xGD and have collected just three points against 7.76 expected points. Their 6.99 xGA is also better than several teams sitting comfortably above them. While they looked a little blunt against Liverpool in Gameweek 5, the Cherries are much better than their league position suggests.
Buy Bournemouth selectively in match markets. The table is pricing a bad team; the underlying numbers describe an unlucky one.
League position: 10th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
8.94 | 10.30 | -1.36 | 13.86 |
SELL - Champions League qualification market
Chelsea's ten goals disguise a much weaker overall profile. They have already conceded 10.30 xGA and own a negative expected-goal differential. The issue is not simply that Chelsea have conceded 12 actual goals. The chance quality behind those goals says the defensive problems are real.
Sell Champions League qualification exposure (currently at 68¢) until Chelsea demonstrate they can control games without repeatedly giving opponents high-quality chances.
League position: 9th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
5.54 | 9.34 | -3.80 | 10.50 |
SELL - European qualification market
Newcastle's eight points seriously flatter their performances. They have generated only 5.54 xG, conceded 9.34 xGA and recorded just 4.29 xPTS.
Nine actual goals from 5.54 xG have covered up the attacking problem, while the defence has offered little control.
Sell European qualification exposure. Newcastle need a substantial process improvement, not simply better results.
League position: 13th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
8.48 | 5.01 | +3.47 | 11.11 |
SELL - Relegation market (12¢)
Forest are the biggest anomaly in the bottom half. They have the lowest xGA in the league, a +3.47 xGD and 9.17 expected points, yet have collected only five.
Polymarket prices relegation Yes at 12¢. That looks difficult to reconcile with the underlying defensive numbers.
Sell relegation exposure. Forest's results have been poor; their process has not.
League position: 8th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
5.73 | 7.19 | -1.46 | 16.72 |
BUY - Relegation market
Hull's eighth-place position is a wonderful story and they have already proven many wrong, myself included. However, it is one of the least supported positions in the table. They have generated only 5.73 xG and own the league's second-highest PPDA, indicating very little pressing pressure.
Eight actual points versus 5.46 xPTS reinforces the concern. Polymarket has Hull at 56¢ to be relegated, which could be the best value you will get on the Tigers to go down this season.
Buy the relegation market. The table looks healthy; the underlying performance does not.
League position: 11th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
7.12 | 10.31 | -3.19 | 12.06 |
BUY - Relegation market
Ipswich have already won twice, but their defensive numbers remain a problem. Only Aston Villa have conceded more xGA.
The attack has been serviceable. The difficulty is needing that attack to compensate for more than two expected goals conceded per game.
Polymarket prices Ipswich relegation at 46¢. Like Hull, this could be the lowest price available for the Tractor Boys to go down this season, and presents an excellent buy low opportunity.
Buy relegation exposure while their six points keep the market below an even-money probability.
League position: 14th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
10.07 | 8.85 | +1.22 | 9.83 |
SELL – Relegation market (18¢)
Sunderland's 5-3 defeat at Manchester City exposed their defensive vulnerabilities, but Brian Brobbey's hat-trick demonstrated their attacking threat. Sunderland have generated 10.07 xG, the fifth-highest total in the league, yet scored only six goals across five matches.
Their four points also contrast with 7.69 expected points. With a positive xGD and an active press, Sunderland's performances offer more encouragement than their results suggest. The relegation market is worth examining for an opportunity to sell an existing Yes position, particularly if the City defeat has shortened their survival odds.
League position: 16th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
4.99 | 10.86 | -5.87 | 17.24 |
SELL – Top-six market
Villa's problems extend well beyond their disappointing results. They have generated the league's second-lowest xG while conceding more expected goals than any other team. Their 17.24 PPDA also indicates a passive defensive approach that has failed to prevent opponents from creating chances.
With just 3.97 expected points from five matches, Villa's poor start is supported by the underlying data. Their European ambitions increasingly depend on a significant improvement at both ends of the pitch, making existing top-six positions vulnerable.
League position: 19th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
7.96 | 10.43 | -2.47 | 11.69 |
HOLD – Relegation market
Fulham remain winless after five matches, although Sunday's 1-1 draw with Manchester United offered some relief. Their underlying numbers suggest two points is a harsh return: they have accumulated 5.06 expected points and generated almost eight xG.
The concern is defensive. Fulham have already allowed 10.43 xGA, the second-highest total in the league. Their attacking production offers some encouragement, but until they start limiting opposition chances, neither buying nor selling relegation exposure is particularly compelling.
League position: 15th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
7.58 | 10.02 | -2.44 | 15.66 |
BUY – Relegation market
Palace's goalless draw at Leeds earned a valuable away point, but it did little to resolve their underlying defensive problems. They have conceded 11 goals from 10.02 xGA, while their 15.66 PPDA indicates limited pressing intensity.
The attack has generated a respectable 7.58 xG, although it has produced just six goals. With a negative xGD and only 5.40 expected points, Palace's defensive profile makes their relegation contract worth examining at 33¢.
League position: 20th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
5.82 | 9.19 | -3.37 | 7.53 |
SELL – Top-six market
Oh boy. Tottenham's 3-2 defeat to Aston Villa extended their winless start, leaving them with two points from five matches. Their aggressive press, reflected in a 7.53 PPDA, has delivered little defensive control, while their attack has scored just twice from 5.82 xG.
Finishing should improve, but the underlying problem is chance creation. Spurs are generating only 1.16 xG per match while conceding 1.84 xGA. Their current performances provide little support for European qualification, making top-six exposure difficult to justify.
The relegation market at 19¢ currently looks better value, but I would stop short of considering it a buy.
League position: 18th
xG | xGA | xGD | PPDA |
|---|---|---|---|
4.98 | 8.59 | -3.61 | 18.62 |
BUY – Relegation market
Coventry's 5-0 defeat to Brighton exposed the problems that have characterized their opening five matches. They have scored just once from 4.98 xG, while their 18.62 PPDA is the highest in the Premier League, indicating the least aggressive pressing profile.
Their lack of attacking production is particularly concerning. With a negative xGD, only 4.55 expected points and four defeats already, Coventry's underlying numbers reinforce the relegation concerns. The Yes contract is worth investigating, although the entry price must still offer value.
