National League Pennant Futures: Who Will Win the NL Pennant?
Updated September 22, 2026
Updated September 22, 2026
The National League pennant race has narrowed into a six-team conversation. Milwaukee owns the best record in the league, Los Angeles sits close behind, and Atlanta has already wrapped up the NL East. Chicago, San Diego, and Philadelphia are still fighting through the Wild Card picture, leaving a postseason field with several very different paths to the pennant.
Polymarket traders have created a clear top tier in the NL pennant race. Los Angeles remains the favorite, Milwaukee is the top alternative, and Atlanta sits a noticeable step behind the top two. Chicago, Philadelphia, and San Diego make up the next group, each carrying a much smaller share of the market.
The postseason format helps explain that separation. Milwaukee and Los Angeles are positioned for first-round byes, removing an entire best-of-three series from their path. Atlanta is headed for the Wild Card round as the third division winner. That extra series adds some extra risk for Atlanta before the Division Series begins.
The best argument for the Dodgers is their rotation. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tarik Skubal, Blake Snell, and Tyler Glasnow give Los Angeles four starters capable of controlling a short series. Shohei Ohtani is expected back from the injured list as well, adding another elite bat to a lineup with Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Kyle Tucker. The bullpen is the concern, with key late-inning roles still less settled. Those making MLB predictions in this market will have to determine whether they trust that bullpen at LA's current price.
Milwaukee has earned its place near the top of the market. The Brewers have the best record in baseball in the regular season this year. Jacob Misiorowski has developed into the staff ace, while Logan Henderson gives Milwaukee a strong second option. The lineup has depth and speed, and the pitching staff has allowed fewer runs than any other NL contender. The main question is rotation depth beyond the first two starters.
Atlanta has secured the NL East title this year. Chris Sale gives the Braves a proven Game 1 starter, while Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson remain central to the offense. Atlanta has also been excellent at home, which should help them in the opening round of the postseason. But facing the top two could prove to be too much of a challenge later in the playoffs.
Chicago may be the most interesting team outside the top three. The Cubs have arguably the best offense in the National League, and their run differential is stronger than Atlanta’s. Pete Crow-Armstrong has reached 45 home runs and gives Chicago a difference-maker in the middle of the lineup. The drawback is the postseason path, which likely begins in the Wild Card round.
Philadelphia remains dangerous because October can reward front-line starting pitching. Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sánchez give the Phillies two starters capable of carrying a short series, while Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber can change a game quickly. The concern is consistency. Philadelphia's bullpen has been less reliable than several direct competitors, which could cost them in high-pressure playoff environments.
San Diego has finished strong in the regular season and could put a scare into the favorites listed above. Michael King anchors the rotation, while Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado give the lineup star power. Still, questions behind King in the rotation make San Diego harder to trust across several postseason rounds.
Milwaukee has been the best regular-season team in the National League, but Los Angeles has the roster shape I prefer for October. A likely first-round bye would let the Dodgers line up Yamamoto, Skubal, Snell, and Glasnow without using premium innings in a Wild Card Series.
The bullpen and Ohtani’s health keep this from being an easy call. Even so, Los Angeles combines elite starting pitching, lineup depth, postseason experience, and a favorable path. Milwaukee is the strongest alternative, but the Dodgers are my pick to win the 2026 National League pennant.
