Updated August 21, 2026
The AL MVP award typically goes to the best position player in the American League each season, though pitchers have been in the running for the award at times as well. This season, some of the biggest hitters in the American League are in contention for this individual honor, while other big names have fallen completely out of the race. Here, we break down the race to win AL MVP and give you our prediction in the race as well.
At this point in the season, Yordan Alvarez of the Houston Astros has become a massive favorite to win the 2026 AL MVP. According to the Polymarket prediction market, Alvarez is priced as a near certainty to win the award. And it's not hard to see why that's the case when you look at his numbers this season.
Alvarez is among the league leaders across all of MLB in both batting average and home runs this season, and he isn't too far behind the league's RBI leaders either. It is entirely possible that Alvarez could win the triple crown this season, and he should win at least one of the titles in those individual categories.
What has really made Alvarez valuable, though, is how much he has elevated his team. The entire AL West has been mediocre this season, and the Astros would likely be the worst team in that division with a replacement-level player in the place of Alvarez. As a result, it would be a shock if he did not win AL MVP in 2026.
Going into this season, Aaron Judge had around a 40% chance to win AL MVP at Polymarket, with his odds rising to close to 50% in the month of May. But injuries have derailed Judge's chances of winning AL MVP this year, as Judge went down with an injury on May 31.
Judge had 17 home runs on the year before he went out injured, and he was certainly going to be in the mix for this award. But missing so much time made it so that his production could never reach the level of Alvarez or any of the other players still in contention to grab this honor.
At this point in the season, there aren't any other serious contenders to win AL MVP. Junior Caminero and Bobby Witt Jr. both deserve credit for putting together excellent seasons of their own, with Witt ranking top-5 in the AL in batting average, and Caminero in contention to finish ahead of Alvarez in home runs. But it would take a miracle for either to catch Alcarez in this race.
Of course, the potential payout on Witt, Caminero, or anyone but Alvarez would be impressive if they were to win. And new customers can take advantage of our Polymarket promo code to get a trade credit to use on this market or anything else going on in MLB.
Yordan Alvarez is the only choice we can recommend for AL MVP based on what we've seen so far this year. Of course, there isn't a lot of value in backing him in the prediction markets or betting markets given his current pricing. But if you're willing to lay the price on Alvarez, he will probably come through at the end of the year.
