Updated September 10, 2026
The Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners meet on Thursday, September 10, with first pitch set for 4:10 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park. Texas will send Jacob deGrom (10-9, 3.96 ERA) to the mound against Seattle’s Logan Gilbert (11-9, 3.71 ERA).
Seattle picked up a 3-2 win Wednesday afternoon to set up a rubber match, and there’s plenty at stake with both teams still chasing Houston in the AL West playoff race. Below, we’ll break down our Rangers vs Mariners prediction, the pitching matchup, and the biggest storylines heading into Thursday’s series finale.
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“I expect a desperate Mariners team to get off to a good start at home Thursday afternoon. In a matchup of righties, Seattle has been much better against right-handed pitching this year, with a 107 wRC+ compared to 99 for Texas. deGrom has also struggled on the road with a 5.86 ERA and 1.46 WHIP, so I like the Mariners to have the lead after five innings.”
Mariners Priced at 44¢ to Lead After Five Innings
Polymarket currently prices Seattle around 44¢ to be leading after five innings. Our model gives the Mariners roughly a 48% chance of holding the lead through five, creating a small edge at the current price.
Gilbert Is in a Good Spot to Bounce Back
The Rangers have scored six or more runs in seven of their last 10 games, but they’re probably due for some regression. Texas still ranks just 26th in MLB at 4.16 runs per game on the year, so this recent stretch hasn’t really matched what we’ve seen from the offense for most of the season. Gilbert should also be pretty motivated to bounce back after arguably his worst start of the year. He gave up seven earned runs on eight hits in just 4.2 innings against the Athletics, finishing with a season-low 28 Game Score. I expect a much better performance from him at home on Thursday.
Recommended Prediction:
Seattle Mariners F5 -0.5
Current Market Price:
44¢
Model Win Probability:
48%
Market-Implied Probability:
44%
Model Edge:
4%
Buy Up To:
47¢
Model Trade Confidence:
70/100
Jacob deGrom has been one of the best pitchers in baseball for a long time when healthy, but at 38 years old and in his 13th MLB season, Father Time may finally be starting to catch up with him. deGrom enters Thursday with a career-worst 3.96 ERA across 143.1 innings, while his 2.0 WAR is his lowest in any season in which he has made at least 12 starts.
His struggles away from home are even more concerning for Texas. deGrom has a 5.86 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, and 3.09 K/BB ratio on the road this season, compared to a 2.46 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 6.87 K/BB ratio at home. Those road struggles have shown up in the results, too, with the Rangers losing eight of deGrom’s last 10 starts away from home.
The good news for deGrom and the Rangers is that their offense has finally turned it on here in September. Better late than never, right? Texas currently ranks fifth in baseball at 5.63 runs per game this month, while ranking second with a .802 OPS and 15 home runs.
A big part of that has been Corey Seager finally getting going. He’s hitting .313 with a 1.093 OPS and four home runs already this month, a pretty big jump from his .230 average and .760 OPS on the season.
The question now is whether the Rangers can keep it going. Their offense has been one of the worst in baseball for most of the year, so this recent surge is a pretty big change from what we’ve seen over the first five months of the season.
Time is running out for Seattle. The Mariners enter Thursday at 68-78, putting them 10 games below .500 and six games behind the Astros for first place in the AL West. They’re also 5.5 games behind the Guardians for the third and final AL Wild Card spot.
With only 16 games left, just about every game is a must-win at this point. Seattle is in serious danger of missing the playoffs altogether just one year after coming within a single win of reaching the World Series.
For more picks as the playoff races heat up, check out our free daily MLB predictions for every game on the schedule.
