Updated September 10, 2026
Chelsea are overwhelming favorites against Hull City on Saturday, but the most interesting market is not the moneyline.
Instead, I’m looking at Both Teams to Score — Yes at 50¢ on Polymarket.
Hull have yet to concede a Premier League goal this season, keeping clean sheets against Manchester United, Coventry and Aston Villa. Chelsea, meanwhile, have gone in the opposite direction: they have scored in all three league matches but also conceded every time, beating Fulham 3-2 and Brighton 4-3 before losing 2-1 at Arsenal.
That creates a simple betting question: can Hull score once at Stamford Bridge?
Polymarket traders currently make that almost a coin flip.
Editor's notes
“Chelsea should create enough to end Hull’s clean-sheet run, but the more interesting question is whether Hull can score themselves. Chelsea have conceded in all three Premier League games so far, which makes BTTS Yes the angle I prefer.”
The pricing is revealing.
Chelsea Over 0.5 team goals trades at roughly 94¢, so the market is overwhelmingly confident that Hull’s perfect defensive record ends here.
Hull Over 0.5 goals, however, sits around 52¢.
And the combined Both Teams to Score — Yes market is available at approximately 50¢.
That means traders are effectively giving BTTS a 50% chance.
I’m willing to go slightly higher.
Chelsea have conceded seven goals through their first three league games. Fulham scored twice, Brighton scored three times at Stamford Bridge and Arsenal scored twice last weekend. BTTS has therefore landed in all three of Chelsea’s Premier League games.
Hull have only scored three league goals, but they have already shown they can punish stronger opposition. Their 2-0 opening-day win over Manchester United is the obvious example, while Mohamed Belloumi hit the crossbar in the 0-0 draw against Aston Villa.
The sportsbook comparison makes the Polymarket price more attractive.
BetRivers currently lists Both Teams to Score — Yes at -115, implying approximately a 53.5% probability.
Buying Yes at 50¢ on Polymarket instead effectively gives you an even-money entry before fees.
That difference is meaningful.
A $100 equivalent winning sportsbook wager at -115 generates about $86.96 in profit. A 50¢ Polymarket contract returns $1 if the market resolves Yes, effectively doubling the contract price before trading fees.
So if we like BTTS, Polymarket currently offers the cleaner price.
The obvious counterargument is strong: Hull have played three Premier League games and conceded zero goals.
They beat Manchester United 2-0, won 1-0 at Coventry and held Aston Villa scoreless.
That cannot simply be ignored.
But Chelsea present a much tougher attacking test, particularly at Stamford Bridge. The Blues have already scored seven goals across their opening two matches against Fulham and Brighton alone.
The risk instead comes at the other end.
Chelsea have yet to keep a league clean sheet, and their aggressive approach has repeatedly left room for opponents. Hull are unlikely to dominate possession, but they do not need to. One counterattack, set piece or Chelsea defensive mistake is enough.
Hull’s defensive start makes this a genuinely interesting trade rather than an obvious one.
Chelsea should score. Polymarket essentially agrees, pricing them at 94% to get at least one.
The question is whether Hull can do what Fulham, Brighton and Arsenal all managed against Chelsea: find one goal.
At 50¢, I think the risk-reward is attractive enough.
Trade: Both Teams to Score — Yes at 50¢ (Polymarket)
