2026 NL Cy Young Award Pricing, Predictions & Insights
Updated September 29, 2026
Updated September 29, 2026
The top pitchers in the National League will do battle this season for the NL Cy Young Award. Shohei Ohtani isn't a factor on the mound this year, opening the door for some other big names to get their hands on the hardware. Here, we look at the pricing in the race for this award and give you our predictions in the market.
Looking at this year's NL Cy Young pricing, it is clear that this award is Jacob Misiorowski's to lose in 2026. The Brewers ace leads the entire league in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts, not just the National League. He has also been the most fun pitcher to watch in baseball by a longshot this year, thanks to his incredible velocity.
At this stage of the season, the regular-season numbers for all pitchers are in, and Misiorowski has the best resume of any options in this market. Polymarket has reacted accordingly, making him close to a 100% market favorite going into the month of October, with no time left for anyone to catch up to the best pitcher in the league this year.
A huge reason for Misiorowski's nearly untouchable status as the 2026 NL Cy Young favorite is the fact that Paul Skenes has not lived up to his usual standards for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Skenes was the clear market favorite to win this award going into 2026. But Skenes has struggled this season, without the same dominant numbers we saw from him early in his career as he looked to overcome the shortcomings of the Pirates.
While Misiorowski's fastball has gained velocity somehow, Skenes has lost velocity from his. Questions about his fitness have not helped his cause, as fans have started to ask whether he is taking things as seriously as he should. While I think most of those concerns are unfounded, Skenes will need to find some velocity to contend for this award again in future seasons.
In Skenes' place, some other strong seasons deserve recognition, even if they are going to fall short in this race against Misiorowski. Chase Burns of the Cincinnati Reds has been spectacular to help Cincinnati be as competitive as possible, while Chris Sale and Cristopher Sanchez would likely be strong picks to win this award in most other seasons.
There is very little chance that anyone besides Misiorowski wins the NL Cy Young. The question will be whether Misiorowski's velocity and pitch location will translate to success in the playoffs, where the Brewers will look to take down elite teams like the Atlanta Braves and LA Dodgers.
