Updated September 8, 2026
The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers continue their NL Central series Tuesday night at American Family Field with Milwaukee holding an 89-56 record and an eight-game division lead over the 81-64 Cubs. Milwaukee took Monday’s opener 4-3 after scoring three times in the eighth inning. Tuesday brings a much larger starting-pitching advantage for the home side, as Jacob Misiorowski gets the ball for the Brew Crew against David Peterson in a game scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET.
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“Chicago’s recent offensive production appears to be carrying too much weight in the current price. Milwaukee has a major starting-pitcher advantage, home-field advantage, and faces a Cubs bullpen that has repeatedly failed to protect leads. The Brewers have several paths to creating separation over 9 innings.”
Where Our Model Stands
Polymarket had Milwaukee -1.5 priced at 48¢ early Tuesday morning, which translates to a 48% implied probability that the Brewers win by at least two runs. The same market had Milwaukee around 66¢ to win outright. That gap makes sense because one-run victories are common in baseball, but my projection puts Milwaukee’s chance of clearing the run line at 52.5%. That produces a 4.5% edge at the current 48¢ price.
The Miz Will Make the Difference
The starting pitchers create most of that difference. Misiorowski owns a 14-5 record, 1.97 ERA and 13.2 strikeouts per 9 innings, while Peterson is 7-8 with a 5.39 ERA. Peterson also allowed six earned runs in only 3 2/3 innings against Milwaukee in his previous start. Misiorowski was hit harder than usual by Chicago last week, allowing five earned runs in four innings, but his season-long body of work gives Milwaukee a far better baseline on the mound. At 48¢, the price leaves enough room to accept the added risk of needing a 2-run victory. I would continue buying Milwaukee -1.5 up to 50¢.
Recommended Prediction:
Brewers -1.5
Current Market Price:
48¢
Model Win Probability:
52.5%
Market-Implied Probability:
48%
Model Edge:
4.5%
Buy Up To:
50¢
Model Trade Confidence:
74/100
The Cubs scored five earned runs against Misiorowski last Wednesday, one of his poorest starts of the season. That could cast doubt on backing Milwaukee in any Cubs vs Brewers prediction. But that result should not erase what the 24-year-old has done across 26 appearances.
His 1.97 ERA is paired with 13.2 strikeouts per 9 innings and a .155 opponent batting average. Those numbers give him considerable room for error compared with Peterson. Misiorowski can miss bats at a rate few starters can equal, and that becomes especially useful against a Chicago lineup that has been producing plenty of power lately.
The Cubs have hit 24 home runs over their past 10 games while batting .282 and slugging .537. Pete Crow-Armstrong has been at the center of that surge, hitting eight home runs with 14 RBI during that span. He also homered in the ninth inning Monday, giving him 41 for the season. Alex Bregman has been another major threat, batting .395 with five home runs across his past 10 games.
That recent production is the strongest argument against Milwaukee -1.5. Chicago can turn one Misiorowski mistake into a big inning and has enough power to erase a deficit quickly. Still, Tuesday asks the Cubs to repeat last week’s success against one of baseball’s best starters.
David Peterson comes in with a much less convincing statistical background than his counterpart on the mound. His 5.39 ERA is a product of a .277 opponent batting average, and Milwaukee already saw him recently. The Brewers scored six earned runs on seven hits in 3 2/3 innings against Peterson last Wednesday.
Milwaukee does not need to guess about Peterson’s current approach because its hitters just faced him. Jackson Chourio, Christian Yelich, William Contreras, Brice Turang and the rest of the order should have a clear idea of what Peterson wants to do.
Milwaukee has been less explosive than Chicago lately, batting .259 with 10 home runs over its past 10 games, but Cooper Pratt has driven in 11 runs while batting .344 during that stretch. Chourio also delivered the biggest hit Monday, a 2-run single in the eighth that turned a Chicago lead into a Milwaukee advantage.
Monday offered another example of why Milwaukee can be dangerous late. Chicago led most of the afternoon before the Brewers broke through in the eighth. The Cubs have now blown 61 leads this season, an alarming number for a club trying to secure a postseason position.
That issue is especially important for a run-line prediction. Even if Peterson keeps Chicago close for five innings, the Cubs still need to cover several innings with a relief group that has had trouble closing games. Milwaukee’s offense does not have to dominate from the opening pitch if it can reach Chicago’s weaker arms later.
Chicago enters Tuesday without Dansby Swanson, who is on the 10-day injured list with a side issue. Ian Happ is day-to-day because of a knee problem and was absent from Monday’s lineup. The pitching staff is also missing several arms, including Ben Brown, Edward Cabrera, Cade Horton, Justin Steele, Phil Maton, and Porter Hodge.
Milwaukee has injuries of its own. Brandon Woodruff remains on the 60-day injured list with a shoulder problem, while Grant Anderson, Bryse Wilson, Angel Zerpa, and Quinn Priester are also unavailable. Still, Tuesday’s pitching setup favors the Brewers because Misiorowski is healthy and starting.