Updated August 25, 2026
The American League Cy Young Award is up for grabs this season, with some of the best pitchers in baseball at the forefront in this market. A huge trade in the middle of the year has made this market even more interesting. Here, we take a closer look at the pricing and give you our prediction in this race.
A two-horse race has emerged between two pitchers from the AL East in this year's battle for the Cy Young award. Cam Schlittler of the New York Yankees is the market favorite to win this award, while Dylan Cease of the Toronto Blue Jays is the only pitcher within shouting distance according to the prices at Polymarket.
Schlittler and Cease are first and second in the American League in ERA among qualifying pitchers this season, and are the only two pitchers in the AL whose ERAs are under 2.50 on the year. That could certainly change, either due to some regression from those two starters or with some strong performances by Sonny Gray and Parker Messick. But for now, Schlittler and Cease have been by far the best arms in the AL.
The ability of Schlittler and Cease to miss bats has helped them separate themselves from their competition. Both men are in the top 3 in the AL in strikeouts this year. If they can continue to pile up the strikeouts, it would be hard to see one of them not winning this year's top honor for pitchers in this league.
Schlittler has seen his price continue to improve in the AL Cy Young race, as you can see in the chart from Polymarket above. Meanwhile, Schlittler should be the beneficiary of Tarik Skubal being traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers at the trade deadline. Skubal was the market favorite to win this award before the start of the season. But he isn't going to finish this season as an American League pitcher, removing a competitor from this race who has an ERA under 3.00 for the year.
The question now is whether anyone besides Cease can mount a serious challenge for Schlittler. Pitchers like Drew Rasmussen of the Rays and Parker Messick of the Guardians have impressive numbers this season. But they are just about out of time to bridge the gap between their impressive numbers and the Cy Young-caliber stats of Schlittler and Cease.
At this point in the season, it's hard to pick against Cam Schlittler of the Yankees, especially with his team having more success than Cease's Blue Jays. Still, I'm going to take Cease to win this award at a plus price. His numbers are very competitive with those of Schlittler, and a strong final six weeks could see Cease leapfrog Schlittler, while Cease's current price represents a nice value play.
