AL West Futures: Who Will Win the AL West This Year?
Updated September 23, 2026
Updated September 23, 2026
The AL West has become one of the most unusual division races in baseball. Houston and Texas have both had uneven stretches, yet the door has stayed open because neither club has separated from the other for long. Seattle remained close enough to matter into the final week but has now fallen to the edge of elimination, leaving the division in the hands of the Astros and Rangers. This race could very well come down to the final day of the season, and we break down what's left of the race here.
Houston has spent much of the season trying to win without looking like the dominant Astros teams of recent years. Injuries have taken away important pieces, the lineup has gone through quiet periods, and the club entered the final stretch after a difficult series against Atlanta. Still, the Astros have kept themselves in position to win the division, and Tuesday’s response in Seattle was exactly what they needed.
Yordan Alvarez remains the central force in the lineup, and Houston also owns the tiebreaker over Texas. That detail carries major weight with so little baseball left. The schedule helps as well. After finishing in Seattle, Houston closes against an Athletics team that has already been eliminated. The current futures market reflects those advantages by placing the Astros clearly ahead of Texas in both the division market and the AL pennant futures race.
Texas has made a serious late push and briefly moved into sole possession of first place before Tuesday’s loss to the Mets brought the race back even. The Rangers have found ways to stay alive despite dealing with injuries across the pitching staff, and their recent climb has turned what once looked like Houston’s division into a genuine fight.
The concern is that Texas does not have much room for another poor night. The Rangers lost control of the division lead with a sloppy defensive performance against New York, and their rotation has been forced to absorb more injuries at a difficult time. Texas still has a realistic path to the title, but the market now treats the Rangers as the clear alternative rather than the favorite.
Seattle entered the season with high expectations, but the year has been frustrating. The Mariners have struggled to find consistent offense, while injuries have also affected a pitching staff that was expected to be one of the club’s biggest strengths. A difficult September has left Seattle with almost no path back into the division race.
Tuesday’s shutout loss to Houston was another reminder of how far the Mariners have slipped. They can still influence the race because they are hosting the Astros, but their own futures position has essentially disappeared. At this point, Seattle is playing the role of spoiler rather than a realistic division contender.
The Athletics showed signs earlier in the season that they might make the AL West more interesting, but that promise did not last. Their young lineup has produced encouraging individual performances, and there are still pieces that could matter in future seasons, yet the pitching staff has had too many difficult stretches for the club to stay competitive.
The Athletics are already eliminated from the division race at Polymarket. Their main relevance now comes from Houston’s final series in West Sacramento. That gives the Athletics a chance to affect the race even though they no longer have any futures value of their own.
The Angels are finishing another season outside the division race. There have been productive stretches from several hitters and some encouraging performances from younger players, but the club never developed the consistency required to stay near the top of the West.
Los Angeles is also off the board in the division market. The remaining games are more about evaluating the roster and ending the season on a better note than changing anything in the futures picture.
Houston is the better choice to win the AL West. The Astros have the tiebreaker, the more favorable closing schedule, and the best individual hitter in this race in Alvarez. Those factors matter more now than the broader imperfections that have followed Houston through much of the season.
Texas has done enough to make this a real contest, and another Houston stumble could change the picture immediately. Even so, the Rangers’ pitching injuries and recent defensive mistakes create more uncertainty. With the race level and the tiebreaker already in hand, Houston has the cleaner path. The prediction is that the Astros finish the job and win the AL West.
